The Toronto Raptors (21-20) stop by the American Airlines Center Wednesday for an 8:30 p.m. ET game against the Dallas Mavericks (25-19). Below, we look at the Raptors vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Toronto has lost three of its past four games – 2-2 against the spread (ATS) – including most recently at the Miami Heat 104-99 as a 4-point road underdog Monday. The Raptors are 22-19 ATS and 23-18 Over/Under (O/U).
Dallas is on fire this month, winning eight of nine games in January (6-3 ATS), including three straight. The Mavs are second in net rating this month and 23-21 ATS and 13-30-1 O/U this season.
The Mavs (-4.5) beat the Raptors 103-95 in Toronto in their first meeting this season on Oct. 23.
Raptors at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Raptors +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Mavericks -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Raptors +3.5 (-107) | Mavericks -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 207.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Raptors at Mavericks key injuries
Raptors
- SG Gary Trent Jr. (ankle) questionable
Mavericks
- SF Reggie Bullock (knee) probable
- PF Maxi Kleber (knee) probable
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Raptors at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Raptors 103, Mavericks 100
Money line
SPRINKLE on the RAPTORS (+135) for a small wager if at all because Toronto’s spread is the sharper play.
The Raptors have depth, length and size at the wing to frustrate Mavs’ Luka Doncic. Though Doncic is on the ball all the time, he is a 6-foot-7 point guard so Toronto cannot stick 6-1 PG Fred VanVleet on him.
Luckily for Toronto, it has strong defensive small forwards in OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes to throw at Luka, freeing up VanVleet’s bandwidth for the offense.
Raptors head coach Nick Nurse is known for employing several different defensive schemes throughout a game. Toronto’s zone defense could be very effective against a Dallas team that ranks 25th in 3-point percentage.
Again, the plan is to hit Toronto’s spread harder, but I’m OK with a SPRINKLE on the RAPTORS (+135).
Against the spread
Definitely BET the RAPTORS +3.5 (-107) heavier than or instead of their money line because this is a better spot for Toronto.
The Raptors are 10-7 ATS as road underdogs with a plus-4.2 ATS margin (ranked fourth). The Mavs are just 10-11 ATS at home. Plus, Dallas has struggled in cross-conference games, going 4-10 ATS against Eastern Conference foes.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 207.5 (-107) for a quarter-unit wager since both teams rank in the bottom four in pace and top four in offensive-turnover rate.
The bottom line is there’s going to be a ton of slow, methodical possessions and a lot of half-court basketball.
Nearly 70% of the action is on the Over, according to Pregame.com, but the Under is 4-1 in the last five Raptors-Mavericks meetings. Not only do we have a “fade the market” angle, but it corresponds with a head-to-head trend.
I only “LEAN” to the UNDER 207.5 (-107) because both teams have shooters that can light it up from behind the arc and this total is low.
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