The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Columbus Blue Jackets play Game 4 of their best-of-five Eastern Conference qualification round series Friday at 8 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. We analyze the Maple Leafs-Blue Jackets NHL betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Blue Jackets lead 2-1.
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets: Projected starting goalies
Frederik Andersen vs. Elvis Merzlikins
Andersen was staked to a 3-0 lead in Game 3, and things looked like they were trending in the right direction for the Leafs. Blue Jackets C Pierre-Luc Dubois had other ideas. He scored two goals in regulation before poking in the game-winner in overtime at 18:24 for a 4-3 victory, turning what looked like a certain win into a loss for the Leafs. Andersen gave up four goals on 43 shots.
Joonas Korpisalo allowed three goals on 15 shots by the mid-point of the second period. While only one of the goals was his fault, a greasy goal which should have been snared off the stick of Toronto LW Nick Robertson, Columbus head coach John Tortorella decided to shake things up and give Merzlikins a shot. That’s when things turned around. While nothing is official, you can expect Merzlikins to get the starting nod in Game 4 after he didn’t allow a goal on 21 shots in relief.
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Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Maple Leafs 3, Blue Jackets 2
Moneyline (ML)
The MAPLE LEAFS (-175) were pushed to the brink in Game 3, which was a tale of two games. They were leading 3-0 mid-way through the second period, then the Blue Jackets (+150) changed their goaltender and changed their fortunes.
The Leafs were playing with desperation up until they built their big lead, then they seemed to relax. Don’t expect the Leafs to let their guard down in Game 4. If they do, they’ll be excused from the bubble.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Maple Leafs (-175) to win in regulation or overtime returns a profit of $5.70.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
It’s an elimination game, and you cannot trust the Maple Leafs -1 (-106) to win by 2 or more goals, nor is it prudent to bet the Blue Jackets +1 (-115) due to the less profitable price point. While this should be another hotly contested contest, similar to Game 3, betting the Jackets for insurance is too risky. AVOID, and bet the moneyline instead.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 5.5 (-133) looked like it was well on its way to cashing in Game 3, but then both offenses caught fire. Well, the Leafs offense heated up early, and Dubois heated up late for the Jackets.
We’ll likely see a low-scoring game Friday, as the Jackets do not take a lot of silly chances to give the Leafs scoring opportunities the other way. Toronto has the potential to hit these Overs by itself, but for some reason, its big guns just aren’t firing.
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