The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Thursday in Game 6 of their 1st-round Eastern Conference playoff series. The Maple Leafs lead the series 3-2. Puck drop at Amalie Arena in Tampa is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.
The Maple Leafs erased an early 2-0 deficit on home ice Tuesday, rallying for a 4-3 victory to move within 1 game of a series win. The Leafs haven’t advanced to the 2nd round since 2004.
The Lightning have their backs to the wall, facing elimination in the first round after winning the Stanley Cup in each of the past 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is 1-1 at home in this series, averaging 4.5 goals per game while yielding 4.0 goals per outing in these contests.
Maple Leafs at Lightning odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Maple Leafs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Lightning -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-220) | Lightning -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -140 | U: +112)
Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies
Jack Campbell (31-9-6, 2.64 GAA, .914 SV%, 5 SO – regular season) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-18-5, 2.49 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO – regular season)
Campbell spotted the Lightning 2 goals in the first 6:11 of Game 5, but he settled down and allowed just 1 goal for the remainder of the game. He is 3-2-0 with a 3.41 GAA and .895 SV% with 1 shutout in 5 postseason games.
Vasilevskiy will have to save the Lightning again after a playoff loss. Since 2020, Vasilevskiy is 16-0 with a 1.41 GAA and .945 SV% with 5 shutouts following a loss in the postseason. Tampa Bay has a 26.2% mark on the power play while killing penalties at an 86.8% clip during that span.
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Maple Leafs at Lightning picks and predictions
Prediction
Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 2
Money line
The LIGHTNING (-130) have a championship pedigree, and the Maple Leafs have a really shaky postseason past. It’s hard to see Toronto ousting Tampa Bay and sending the 2-time defending champs to the handshake line, especially in their own barn.
Against the spread
The LIGHTNING -1.5 (+165) are worth a roll of the dice on the puck line but play it lightly. Tampa Bay is a prideful bunch that should force this series back to the Great White North for a decisive Game 7.
Over/Under
UNDER 6.5 (+112) is a risky play, but that’s the lean here.
The Over has hit in each of the last 4 games in this series after an Under result in Game 1. While the Maple Leafs have scored at least 3 goals in every game in this series, it’s time for Vasilevskiy to shine brightest when everything is on the line. Expect his best performance of the series.
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