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The Toronto Maple Leafs (38-19-9) travel to meet the Philadelphia Flyers (34-26-8) at Wells Fargo Center Tuesday. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Flyers odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Maple Leafs lead 2-0; Toronto won 6-2 in Philadelphia in their most recent meeting Thursday as the Over (6) cashed
The Maple Leafs suffered a 5-4 loss in a shootout at home against the Carolina Hurricanes Saturday as the Over (6) cashed. Toronto is still an impressive 12-3-1 in the past 16 games dating back to Feb. 13, including a 4-3 OT win in Toronto against the Flyers Feb. 15 and the 6-2 win in Philly Thursday.
Toronto has won 8 straight meetings in this series, outscoring Philadelphia 39-18. The Leafs have scored at least 4 goals in each of the past 7 victories in the series, with the Over going 5-0 in the past 5 outings and 6-0-1 in the previous 7.
The Flyers suffered a 6-5 loss against the Boston Bruins on the road Saturday, and they’re 1-3-0 in the past 4 games while being outscored 21-10. The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 4 outings for the Fly Guys.
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Maple Leafs at Flyers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:10 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Flyers +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+180) | Flyers +1.5 (-225)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Maple Leafs at Flyers projected goalies
Ilya Samsonov (18-5-7, 3.09 GAA, .889 SV%, 2 SO) vs. Samuel Ersson (19-14-5, 2.67 GAA, .898 SV%, 3 SO)
Samsonov allowed 4 goals on 40 shots in a 5-4 SOL against the Hurricanes last time out Saturday. That snapped a 4-game winning streak. Samsonov is 4-0-1 with a 2.29 GAA and .925 SV% in 5 March starts, including a 6-2 win Thursday in Philadelphia when he stopped 26 of 28 shots.
Ersson was tagged for 3 goals on just 12 shots in a period of work against the Maple Leafs Thursday before being pulled. He is 2-3-1 with a 3.49 GAA and .879 SV% in 6 March starts.
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Maple Leafs at Flyers picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 5, Flyers 2
Moneyline
The MAPLE LEAFS (-130) are a solid play as moderate favorites, as they have dominated this series in recent seasons with 8 consecutive wins.
Toronto has been playing well in general, going 12-3-1 in the past 16 games dating back to Feb. 13 while winning 6 of the past 7 outings on the road.
The Flyers (+110) are just 1-3-0 in the past 4 games, while allowing at least 6 goals in each of the setbacks.
Puck line/Against the spread
The MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (+180) is a strong play laying the goal-and-a-half. Toronto came in last week and won by 4 goals, and it has covered the puck line in 6 of the past 8 victories in this series, with each of those wins by at least 3 goals.
The Flyers +1.5 (-225) are 5-2 in the past 7 games on the puck line as underdogs, including 2 outright victories. But Philly can’t be trusted against Toronto lately.
Over/Under
OVER 6.5 (+100) is worth playing at even-money.
We had a combined 8 goals in the meeting Thursday between these teams, and Philly goaltending has coughed up at least 6 goals in 3 of the past 4 outings. The Over is 3-1 in those outings.
For the Leafs, the Over has cashed in the past 2 games, with Toronto scoring 10 goals while allowing 7. On the road, the Leafs have hit the Over at a 6-4-2 clip in the previous 12 outings.
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