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The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins meet in Game 2 of a best-of-7 Eastern Conference 1st-round series Monday. Puck drop from TD Garden is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Bruins odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Playoffs series: Bruins lead 1-0 after 5-1 win in Game 1 on Saturday
The Maple Leafs fell behind 1-0 in the 1st period after just 2:26, as John Beecher scored, with helpers to Jesper Boqvist and Pat Maroon. The floodgates opened in the 2nd period, however, as Ilya Samsonov allowed an even-strength goal to Brandon Carlo, and 2 power-play goals to Jake DeBrusk.
The Leafs finally answered with a David Kampf even-strength goal at 1:39 of the 3rd period, with Connor Dewar and Ryan Reaves notching assists. But you’ll notice that Auston Matthews, who had 69 goals in the regular season, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander and all of the other big guns on offense went scoreless. That has to change quickly, or Toronto will be in a big hole.
It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that Boston won. It has won 8 straight meetings, with the last victory by Toronto coming on Nov. 5, 2022. The last time the Leafs won in Boston was March 29, 2022, behind goalie Erik Kallgren. Yeah, it’s been a hot minute.
Boston has won all 5 meetings this season, outscoring Toronto 20-8. The Over (5.5) cashed at most shops in Game 1 thanks to the empty-net goal by Trent Frederic to put a bow on the scoring. The total has gone high in 6 straight games for the Leafs, with Toronto allowing 5 or more goals in each of the previous 5 outings.
Boston’s Brad Marchand had 2 assists in Game 1, and he now has 7 goals and 23 points in 22 career playoff games against the Maple Leafs.
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Maple Leafs at Bruins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Bruins -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225) | Bruins -1.5 (+180)
- Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Maple Leafs at Bruins projected goalies
Ilya Samsonov (23-7-8, 3.13 GAA, .890 SV%, 3 SO – regular season) vs. Jeremy Swayman (25-10-8, 2.53 GAA, .916 SV%, 3 SO – regular season)
Samsonov made just 19 saves on 23 shots in the 5-1 loss in Game 1, falling behind early, while never recovering. If he plays like that again in Game 2, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a shorter leash, with Joseph Woll likely to be thrust into action.
Swayman kicked aside 35 of the 36 shots he faced in Game 1, and he kept the top 6 forwards off the board. He went 3-0-0 with a 1.30 GAA and .959 SV% in 3 regular-season starts against the Maple Leafs, and he carried over the momentum into the series opener.
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Maple Leafs at Bruins picks and predictions
Prediction
Bruins 4, Maple Leafs 2
Moneyline
The BRUINS (-135) are a strong play as rather light favorites. It’s surprising this number isn’t much higher after the dominant Game 1 performance by Swayman and the offense.
The books likely are thinking Matthews and the Maple Leafs (+115) offense get on track, stealing Game 2 to level the series. However, we’ve seen signs of the Toronto offensive stars disappearing in the playoffs before. The play is on the B’s, until the Leafs show an ability to get over the hump in Boston.
Puck line/Against the spread
The BRUINS -1.5 (+180) are worth a roll of the dice for the chance to nearly double up.
Boston covered the puck line as a favorite in rather easy fashion in the series opener. It’s a strong play to get the job done again, taking a commanding 2-0 series lead back to T-Dot.
Over/Under
OVER 5.5 (-120) is worth a look in Game 2. The total went high in Game 1, but it took a late empty-net goal by Frederic to get over the finish line. Don’t be surprised if it takes another empty-net goal to get the job done in this game, too.
Toronto has allowed 5 or more goals in 5 straight games, with the Over cashing in 6 in a row. Go high, but be careful with a half-unit play at most.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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