The Toronto Blue Jays (62-54) and Seattle Mariners (63-55) put a lid on a three-game series Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Steven Matz is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. He is 9-7 with a 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 101 IP over 20 starts this season.
- He allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits and 3 BB in his last start (Aug. 10 vs. Los Angeles Angels).
- He has clocked a 2.92, with just 1 home run allowed, across his last 5 starts.
RHP Logan Gilbert is the projected starter for the Mariners. Across 15 starts this season, Gilbert is 5-3 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.31 K/9 and 2.21 BB/9 in 73 1/3 IP.
- Gilbert logged a 6.75 ERA over three starts from July 24-Aug. 4 but bounced back with a solid effort against the Texas Rangers in his last start (6 IP, 2 ER allowed on 5H and 0 BB, Aug. 10).
- Unkind batting-average-on-balls-in-play figures played into Gilbert’s recent slump. Over his last five starts, the 24-year-old rookie has clocked a 5.11 ERA, but he has pitched around a .328 BABIP.
Blue Jays at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Blue Jays -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mariners -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) | Mariners +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Prediction
Blue Jays 5, Mariners 3
Money line (ML)
Toronto had been 12-4 over its previous 16 games before arriving in the Emerald City. But the Blue Jays have dropped the first two games of this series and will take to the field Sunday looking to avoid a sweep.
With its wins over Toronto, Seattle is 5-1 over its last 6 games. But overall, with 4.19 runs per game against 4.55 RPG allowed, the Mariners are fortunate to be playing .534 baseball. The Jays figure as the value side, but the tag here overshoots any leverage. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Expected-ERA figures reveal upside for Matz (who has been hurt by a .340 BABIP) and downside for Gilbert (who has benefited from a 9.6% home run/fly ball rate.
The back end of the Blue Jays bullpen figures to be more available than its opposites on the Mariners side for this series finale. Seven of Toronto’s last 10 wins have been by 3 runs or more.
BACK THE BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+145).
Over/Under (O/U)
Batting analytics point to both teams perhaps scoring more runs than they “should have” for most of the season. For instance, both offenses have been aided by generous BABIPs in clutch batting situations. Pair that angle with some capable pitching and a fair price on the underside of this number.
TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (-110).
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