The Toronto Blue Jays (48-44) visit the New York Mets (50-43) Friday to open a three-game series at Citi Field. First pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Blue Jays LHP Steven Matz (8-4. 4.43 ERA) faces the team that drafted him in 2009 for the first time. He enters his 17th start of 2021 with a 1.33 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 81 1/3 IP.
- Tossed 5 scoreless innings with 3 H, 0 BB and 2 K in Toronto’s 10-0 win over the Texas Rangers Sunday.
- Career 3.81 ERA with 52 home runs allowed over 302 1/3 IP, spanning 53 starts and three relief appearances at Citi Field.
Mets RHP Tylor Megill (0-0, 2.63 ERA) has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 across 24 innings, spanning five starts.
- Soon-to-be 26-year-old made his MLB debut June 23 and has been a steady feature in the rotation. He went a season-high 6 innings Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates and didn’t allow a walk or a run.
- Exit velocity and rates of fly balls and hard contact are right around the MLB average, while his ground-ball rate is well above average.
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Blue Jays at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Blue Jays +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Blue Jays 7, Mets 4
Money line (ML)
Back the BLUE JAYS (+100) as short even-money underdogs. Matz didn’t allow a walk in any of his last three starts and will be able to contain a Mets lineup with a ninth-ranked 9.5% walk rate but 23rd-ranked OPS against left-handed pitching.
Toronto has an MLB-high .794 team OPS against righties.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+165) is the play on the alternate run line with the lines shifting early Friday morning.
The Jays have the advantage in the starting pitching splits and should be able to extend their lead once the game is turned over to the bullpens.
The Mets ‘pen is 28th in baseball with a 5.12 aggregate xFIP over the last 14 days, while Blue Jays relievers have combined for an eighth-ranked 4.09 xFIP despite suffering from an otherworldly 28.6% HR/FB rate.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the OVER 8.5 (-125) alternate line. Neither starter has consistently been going deep into games and both bullpens are exploitable.
Toronto is second in MLB with 5.37 runs scored per nine innings on the season and New York’s offense has woken up with 7 or more runs scored in four of the last five games.
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