The Toronto Blue Jays (8-5) head to Minute Maid Park Friday to start a 3-game set with the Houston Astros (6-6) at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Toronto has won back-to-back series 2-1, last weekend against the Oakland Athletics and at the Boston Red Sox earlier this week.
Houston is just the opposite, dropping consecutive series 2-1, both to American League West rivals in the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels.
The Astros beat the Blue Jays 4-2 in last year’s regular-season series, outscoring Toronto 42-26.
Blue Jays at Astros: Projected starters
RHP Ross Stripling vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Stripling (0-0, 3.00 ERA) had a no-decision April 15 in Toronto’s 4-1 win over the A’s, throwing 4-scoreless IP with 2 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
- 2021 vs. Astros: 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.96 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 across 2 starts
- vs. Astros on the current roster: 3.45 FIP with a .286 batting average (BA), .336 wOBA, .359 expected-slugging percentage (xSLG), 18.9 K% and 87.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 37 plate appearances (PA).
Verlander (1-1, 0.69 ERA) got his 1st win of the season Saturday, beating the Mariners 4-0 behind 8-scoreless IP with 3 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 3.20 FIP with a .178 BA, .247 wOBA, .312 xSLG, 38.8 K% and 87.4 mph EV in 49 PA.
Blue Jays at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Blue Jays +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Astros -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-150) | Astros -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Blue Jays at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Blue Jays 2
Money line
LEAN ASTROS (-170).
Houston has a massive edge in the pitching department vs. Toronto. Verlander looks back to his dominant self after missing most of 2020 and all of 2021 with Tommy John surgery.
Furthermore, Houston’s bullpen ranks 9th in FIP and 8th in home runs allowed per nine innings. Toronto ranks 24th and 22nd in those respective categories.
The way to play the ASTROS (-170) is betting to risk 1 unit instead of betting to win 1 unit. Since Houston’s ML is so expensive and the Blue Jays should be in the division race this year, I can only LEAN ASTROS (-170).
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN ASTROS -1.5 (+122).
The last 10 Blue Jays-Astros meetings have been decided by more than 1 run and Houston’s lineup could rake Toronto’s bullpen if Stripling doesn’t get past the 5th inning.
However, the Blue Jays are 27-17 on the RL as road underdogs since the start of last season and Houston is 39-46 RL as home favorites over that span.
Hence the LEAN ASTROS -1.5 (+122).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+105).
Houston’s lineup has gotten off to a slow start in 2022 and I think Verlander gives the Astros a quality start Friday.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+105) because betting the Under in a Verlander game isn’t exactly “sharp.”
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