The natural tendency is to expect a player’s fantasy value to repeat the next year. It’s certainly the most recent data to consider, and that is why fantasy drafts look a lot like the results from the previous season.
Where fantasy value remains less obvious is when a player’s situation changes around him. How he fits into a offensive scheme and combines with his teammates have a great bearing on his success – or lack of it.
Let’s take a look at the three NFL teams that will clash with the conventional wisdom from last year and deserve a longer look heading into 2024.
Atlanta Falcons
Starters: Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Rondale Moore
Where they come from: The three last years were under HC Arthur Smith who also called plays. He was the Titans offensive coordinator for the two previous seasons (2019-2020). During his final season there was when Derrick Henry rushed for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns. His mark in Atlanta was that they never relied heavily on any player, despite selecting the top running back, wideout, and tight end from their respective draft years.
After Matt Ryan left in 2022, the last two seasons saw the Falcons remain Bottom-5 in passing and not manage more than 17 passing touchdowns either year. The Falcons ranked in the Top-2 in rushing attempts over that span though divided up the carries and even showed favor to Cordarrelle Patterson who was an aging and marginal wide receiver turned running back. Last year, the Falcons ranked No. 32 – dead last – in every wide receiver statistic and included only four scores by the position.
The Falcons did rank No. 1 in receiving yards for tight ends (1,380) and No. 5 in completions (114) to the position. But that came with a near-even split between Kyle Pitts (53-667-3) and Jonnu Smith (50-582-3). The best running back from the draft class was Bijan Robinson who was limited to only 214 carries, while Tyler Allgeier handled 186. While HC Arthur Smith had access to an elite tight end, wide receiver, and running back, he insisted on sharing the load to the great dismay of the fantasy community (and arguably the Atlanta fanbase after posting three straight 7-10 records).
Bottom line – they ran a ton but wouldn’t rely heavily on the uber-talented Robinson, threw a lot to tight ends but only half went to the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history, and Drake London still hasn’t topped 910 yards after two seasons despite being the 1.08 pick of 2022 as the top wideout. The offensive scheme never placed any of the offensive players in a position where elite stats were possible.
2024 changes: There are a few player differences this year, and a dramatic shift from the Falcons that we’ve known for the last three seasons. The Falcons parted ways with HC Arthur Smith and brought in Raheem Morris, who had been the defensive coordinator for the Rams. He brings a very accomplished resume that is limited to defensive coaching.
Zac Robinson was tabbed as the offensive coordinator after entering the coaching ranks in 2019 with the Rams, where he coached the quarterbacks and wide receivers for the last five seasons. He learned under HC Sean McVay and been involved exclusively with the passing offense. While mostly an unknown as a coordinator, he comes over with experience in exactly what the weakness that the Falcons had. And Atlanta brought in a new quarterback and four veteran wide receivers while signing two undrafted rookies. This will be a new passing offense by every measure.
Players with new positive situations
RB Bijan Robinson – It is inconceivable that the new offense will split carries between Robinson and Allgeier, unlike 2023 when Allgeier had double-digit carries in half of his games. Robinson only ran for 100 yards twice as a rookie – that’s due for a healthy increase and the presence of a better passing offense can only help to take pressure off the backfield.
TE Kyle Pitts – He posted 68-1026-1 as a rookie playing with the aging Matt Ryan. These last two seasons were disappointments, but the passing offense was one of the worst. He returned from a torn MCL in 2022 and played all 17 games but split catches with Jonnu Smith – who is gone. This is Pitts’ best situation since his rookie year.
WR Drake London – Granted – Kirk Cousins has played with Justin Jefferson, but before that he made 1,000-yard receivers out of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. He almost had two last year. London totals just three 100-yard games in his career, but that’s also sure to increase, along with his first 1,000-yard season.
WR Darnell Mooney – Lands in Atlanta after four seasons in Chicago. He’s been a sub-500 yard receiver for two years while the Bears’ passing offense struggled, but he posted 81 catches for 1,055 yards and four scores in 2021 when Justin Fields was a rookie. He may lack consistency with three other stars on the offense, but he should see an increase from the passing offense that Zac Robinson is importing from the Rams.
Players with new negative situations
QB Kirk Cousins – This may be unfair, and Cousins could certainly maintain his typical 4,000-yard ways for the last many years. He’ll play behind a better O-line as well. The only concern is that he’ll no longer have pass-sponge Justin Jefferson around and the Falcons oddly drafted Michael Penix Jr. despite the wheelbarrow of cash they gave Cousins. The Falcons should have an effective rushing game as well. His worst is still worthy of a fantasy start, and concerns may cause him to drop too far. But he’s not likely to see dramatic increases from his standards and may take a dip.
Los Angeles Chargers
Starters: Justin Herbert, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, Joshua Palmer, DJ Chark
Where they come from: HC Brandon Staley came from a defensive background and used Joe Lombardi as the offensive coordinator. They had moved on from Philip Rivers when they drafted Justin Herbert in 2020. In Staley’s first season there, Herbert passed for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns while both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams posted 1,100 receiving yards and Austin Ekeler was the No. 2 fantasy back with 1,558 total yards and 20 touchdowns.
Both starting wideouts struggled with injuries in 2022, and Herbert dropped to 4,739 yards and 25 touchdowns but remained a Top-10 fantasy quarterback. Austin Ekeler carried the team with 1,637 total yards and 18 scores as the No. 1 fantasy back. But the offense was mostly limited to two wideouts and Ekeler. Lombardi moved on to Denver last year while Kellen Moore came on board to run the offense after great success in Dallas.
Last year, the Chargers offense dropped to No. 32 in rushing yards (1,135) and even fell to only No. 27 in running back receiving yards after two years of being Top-2. Austin Ekeler had contemplated a holdout but played, albeit at a far lesser level than he had, going from No. 1 to only No. 24 as a fantasy wideout. Mike Williams was lost after only three games, but Keenan Allen turned in 108 catches for 1,243 yards and the only Charger fantasy player of any note.
Their pick of Quentin Johnson as the second wideout drafted for 2023 was a flop and Herbert played most of the second half of the season with a fractured left middle finger, plus later fractured his right index finger in Week 14 that ended his year. It was a lost season due mostly to injuries and the dramatic cliff-dive in production by Ekeler. But Herbert was always a Top-10 passer when he played and finished as high as the No. 3 fantasy quarterback in 2021. And this was the No. 3 passing offense each year when the players were healthy.
2024 changes: This is another team that is going to change their identity in a big way. The Chargers have been a passing machine under Justin Herbert and sported two great wideouts in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams – both gone.
Now they head into 2024 without a tight end of any note, and the wideouts were hardly productive last year – Quentin Johnston (38-581-2), Joshua Palmer (38-431-2), and DJ Chark (35-525-5 Carolina). Ladd McConkey is the 2.02 pick by the Chargers this year as the ninth-overall wideout drafted. He carries great potential if only because he is not one of the other mediocre receivers from last year.
The Chargers’ pass-happy ways are over. New head coach Jim Harbaugh left Michigan to take over and employed Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Roman spent 2019-2022 with the Ravens, honing a formidable rushing attack that used a committee approach. In 2023, Lamar Jackson threw for a career-high 3,678 yards. He never managed more than 3,127 while playing under Roman.
Harbaugh brought along Roman to install that run game and remake the offense. His Raven offenses were heavily influenced by Lamar Jackson, and that lessened the rushing from the backfield. Backfield workloads will be higher given that Justin Herbert is a pocket passer and not a runner. He typically ran 50 times per year – about three times per game on average.
Basically, Roman is replicating his offense from Baltimore only without a rushing quarterback. The “run sets up the pass” has been quoted many times and the backfield in intended to be rush-heavy. And it will use the same backs as the Ravens had under Roman.
Players with new positive situations
RB J.K. Dobbins – After four seasons of constantly breaking down in Baltimore, Dobbins assumes the RB1 role for the Chargers. He knows the offense. His rookie year (2020) saw him with a 6.0 YPC average and nine scores. His right leg then abandoned him for the last three seasons, missing 2021 with a torn ACL in the preseason, limiting him to only eight games in 2022, and then tearing his Achilles in Week 1 and missing the rest of that year. Despite that, he is installed as the starting running back in the same scheme for the Chargers. Returning from a torn Achilles is often slow if not incomplete, so he has a tremendous opportunity considering his lack of success for three years. Do you feel lucky? He hasn’t in a long time.
RB Gus Edwards – After five seasons with the Ravens being the reliable utility truck of the backfield, Edward also follows Roman to the Chargers, where he again reprises the role as the team RB2 that is most likely to serve as the RB1 at some point when Dobbins goes down again. He’s never been better than 810 rushing yards, but more than doubled his touchdown record with 13 last year when the Ravens let him take the goal line plunges that Lamar Jackson had once dominated. He tore his ACL in 2022, but appeared little affected by it the next year.
WR Josh Palmer – The third-round pick of 2021 hasn’t topped 770 yards or four touchdowns in a season, but loss of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams thrusts him into a WR1 for at least the start of the year. Yes, the offense will likely throw fewer passes so there is a ceiling he’ll bump into, but he’s also the first read for Justin Herbert when he throws. That Baltimore-style offense rarely uses running backs as receivers and there’s no tight end of any note to steal passes. It’s a safe bet that the Chargers’ receivers will see a decline this year – except for the top two who should dominate the targets.
WR Quentin Johnston – The Chargers knew Allen and Williams were aging and likely to leave when they spent their 1.21 pick on Johnston in the 2023 NFL draft. Johnston was a disappointment with only 38 catches for 431 yards and two scores and he had the chance last year with Mike Williams missing the season. But the situation is more favorable this year with a chance to return to the form he had at TCU and he’ll start out as the WR2 meaning a higher volume of targets. He has a better situation but he must show up more in the preseason this time.
WR Ladd McConkey – The rookie was just the ninth-overall wideout taken in a receiver-rich draft and if he remains as the WR3, his fantasy value won’t be high in this new offense. But the ex-Georgia star merits a fantasy pick to see where he ends up by the end of the summer. Again – he’s the only unproven wideout on the depth chart and that’s a plus in this case.
Players with new negative situations
QB Justin Herbert – He was a Top-8 fantasy quarterback for his first three seasons and passed for 5,000 yards in 2021. But he faces three downgrades that cannot be ignored. He lost his two starting wideouts from the last four years, the Chargers adopt a new run-first scheme that decreases passes and he returns from a fractured index finger on his throwing hand that ended his season in Week 14 last year. There is a chance that he could fall too far in fantasy drafts because he is very talented and reportedly will be healed from his surgery of last year. But his situation is undeniably less favorable than any other year he has played.
Tennessee Titans
Starters: Will Levis, Tony Pollard, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd, Treylon Burks
Where they come from: HC Mike Vrabel spent six years with the Titans, reaching the playoffs three times and even made it to the Conference Championship in 2019 when they lost to the Chiefs. Vrabel’s background was entirely on defense, so the offense has been handled by four different offensive coordinators including Arthur Smith, Todd Smith and most recently Tim Kelly.
This offense was conservative with the pass and always Top-10 in rushing attempts, and even ranked No. 1 in the metric in 2020 and 2021 thanks to feeding Derrick Henry. It has been Bottom-3 in pass attempts for all but one year under Vrabel (No. 26 – 2021). They ranked dead last – No. 32 – in passing attempts last year and only No. 31 in passing scores (12). DeAndre Hopkins (75-1057-7) remained the No. 22 fantasy wideout but there was virtually no fantasy value of any note from any other receiver.
Will Levis was their 2.02 pick last year as the fourth overall quarterback drafted. He became the starter in Week 8 and even managed 327 passing yards in Week 14 in Miami. But the Titans always had one of the weakest passing offenses in the NFL under Vrabel, and relied heavily on Derrick Henry controlling games. DeAndre Hopkins joined them in 2023 and managed to remain healthy for the first time in three seasons, but his yards and scores dwarfed all other Titans. The Titans had no 1,000-yard receivers for two straight seasons after A.J. Brown was allowed to leave.
2024 changes: Yet another team that looks to reverse their established identity from last year with a few new players, losing their previous star, and changing coaches and offensive schemes. First, they brought in HC Brian Callahan who spent the previous four seasons running the offense in Cincinnati, where Joe Burrow has been a Top-8 fantasy quarterback when healthy. The Bengals ranked No. 4 in pass completions last season and yet No. 31 in rushing attempts for the last two years. This is a complete reversal of the Titans’ ways.
There is an offensive line that declined the last few years, but they immediately attended to it in the NFL draft with their 1.07 pick going to the best offensive tackle. DeAndre Hopkins was the lone receiver of any note in 2023 but is now joined by Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd for their best trio in many years. The Battleship Tennessee has completely changed course and will be gaining speed.
Players with new positive situations
QB Will Levis – He enters his second season suddenly directing a pass-first offense, and with new weaponry to use. He only averaged 31 passes per game as a starter and never threw more than 39 times. That will change.
WR Tyler Boyd – He may still be a No. 3 wideout for the Titans as well, but they’ll need to throw the ball and he already knows the offense and continues to play under OC Brian Callahan. He loses Joe Burrow, but the situation is no worse in Tennessee and could end up as a nice value pick in drafts.
WR DeAndre Hopkins – He already posted 1,057 yards in his first season as a Titan and the offense will be more pass-heavy and Will Levis more experienced. There are other receivers that may lessen his looks, but he will no longer be the only wideout that worried defenses.
Players with new negative situations
RB Tony Pollard – After seemingly a better option than Ezekiel Elliott as the No. 2 in Dallas, Pollard was far less effective as the No. 1 back last year. That allowed the Cowboys to let him leave and join the Titans where the scheme may not be that different, but the offensive line will be. Tyjae Spears will see involvement and Pollard’s big chance at glory flopped last season. He should continue to see receptions which will help.
WR Calvin Ridley – He may succeed here. But his big return to the playing field last year wasn’t as great as hoped, barely clipping 1,000 yards while playing with Trevor Lawrence (who also fell short of expectations). Ridley even had the benefit of being the only Jacksonville wideout that remained healthy for more than 11 games. He’ll need to get on the same page with Will Levis in a new offensive scheme. His future is brighter later on than this transition year.