The New England Patriots ran into a problem in 2019 that may repeat itself in 2020.
Last season, tight end Rob Gronkowski was mulling a decision on whether he would or would not return from retirement. In the process, New England missed out on the chance to sign tight end Jared Cook, who reportedly wanted assurances he’d be the top tight end on the depth chart. The Patriots couldn’t make that promise — with Gronk in flux — and so they couldn’t lure Cook. Gronk didn’t come out of retirement either. The Patriots ended up dealing with a deeply thin roster at tight end in 2019.
The Patriots will surely want to avoid a similar situation with Tom Brady in 2020. Brady isn’t considering retirement, but he is mulling a decision to leave New England in free agency. If the decision lingers into free agency, the Patriots are in trouble. They likely have plans in place to surround Brady with talent, in the event he returns. New England likes to highlight Brady’s skills by surrounding him with talented players who bring out his unique talents. If the quarterback is different — Andy Dalton, Jarrett Stidham or Cam Newton — the Patriots will presumably want to complement that player with a different group of skill players. New England may even build an entirely new offense for that signal-caller.
Even if Brady does return — and decides to make his return after a few days of free agency — the Patriots may miss opportunities to sign marquee free agents who want to play with Brady. Maybe a receiver — let’s say A.J. Green, a pending free agent — will only sign with the Patriots if he knows who is playing quarterback. Maybe that receiver will go so far as take a discount if Brady rejoins the Patriots. If Brady’s decision drags out, it may deter free agents from signing with the Patriots. They may land elsewhere.
Odell Beckham Jr. has made it clear he wants to play with Brady. Maybe he’s less interested in getting traded to New England, if Brady isn’t there. (Trades are determined by teams, but Antonio Brown reportedly blew up a trade between the Steelers and Bills because he didn’t want to go to Buffalo.)
The impact could be cyclical. Because the Patriots don’t have Brady on contract, they can’t add skill players. In turn, they can’t use newly-acquired skill players to sell Brady on a more optimistic vision of the offense in 2020. So the Patriots will want Brady’s decision and fast. Perhaps Brady will know that if he’s to return to New England, he’d be wise to make that decision quickly.
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