Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes prediction, pick: UFC 304 co-main ends in Round 1

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 304 main event between interim heavyweight champion [autotag]Tom Aspinall[/autotag] and [autotag]Curtis Blaydes[/autotag], who meet in a rematch of a July 2022 fight that ended with Blaydes winning by injury TKO after Aspinall blew out his knee in the opening moments.

Tom Aspinall UFC 304 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 14-3 MMA, 7-1 UFC
• Height: 6’5″ Age: 31 Weight: 261 lbs. Reach: 78″
• Last fight: Knockout win over Sergei Pavlovich (Nov. 11, 2023)
• Camp: Team Kaobon (England)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Interim UFC heavyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ Amateur MMA titles
+ 11 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 13 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Pivots, shifts stances, etc.
+ Good boxing technique
^ Fast hands and a good feel for counters
+ Heavy leg kicks
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
^ Excellent grappling/finishing instincts from topside

Curtis Blaydes UFC 304 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 18-4 MMA, 13-4 UFC
• Height: 6’4″ Age: 33 Weight: 257 lbs. Reach: 80″
• Last fight: Knockout win over Jailton Almeida (March 9, 2024)
• Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver, Co.)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ NJCAA national heavyweight wrestling title
+ IKF national champ
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 13 KO victories
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Improved striking and footwork
^ Shifts stances/moves well off strikes
+ Solid jab from both sides
^ Variates to body/follows up well
+ Explosive power-double takedown
^ Changes level well
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Bodylocks, trips, suplexes
+ Solid top game
^ Floats, wrist-rides, strikes

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes point of interest: Striking the second time around

Given that their first fight didn’t last longer than a minute, it’s hard to take too much away from said encounter. Blaydes was able to land some counters on an ultra-aggressive Aspinall, but the Englishman sustained a leg injury after the first few stanzas.

With that in mind, I’ll be curious to see if Aspinall is more measured this time around.

Although Aspinall was indoctrinated into martial arts through the world of jiu-jitsu (thanks to his father), the 31-year-old phenom has seamlessly picked up on the striking side of the sport.

Training out of Team Kaobon, Aspinall embodies a similar swagger to his stablemate, Darren Till. And though Aspinall will sometimes show a southpaw stance, the Wigan native primarily operates out of orthodox, applying a style that is all his own.

The Ideas and Habits of Tom Aspinall

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— Phantom Punch Breakdowns (@9h6st21_mma) November 8, 2023

Typically taking the front foot from the jump, Aspinall wastes little time when it comes to poking and prodding his opposition with everything from lightning-fast straight punches to thudding low kicks. And when Aspinall’s eyes pick up on a counter opening mid-exchange, the Englishman always keeps a whipping right hand on a hair trigger.

Aspinall also has some nice knees and elbows that he keeps on a counter-balancing hair trigger, but he’ll need to be careful of the counters Blaydes showed snippets of in their first outing.

Despite coming from a wrestling base, Blaydes is no stranger to kickboxing, showing solid fight-to-fight improvements each time out.

Blaydes moves well for a big man, demonstrating the ability to shift his stance to take angles that encourage corralling scenarios. Not losing sight of his fundamentals, Blaydes does a decent job of keeping his feet beneath him and moving his head off of strikes, smartly sprinkling in feints and hip fakes along the way.

Whether Blaydes is working behind his jab or rolling his head off of his crosses, his time spent training at the Elevation Fight Team has really come through in recent years. However, as we have seen in all of his losses, Blaydes is not beyond being countered for his engagements and will need to be on his best behavior here.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Given Blaydes’ on-paper edge in the wrestling realm, I’ll be curious to see if the American looks to get back to his hallmark attacks.

A junior college wrestling champion, Blaydes carries a potent wrestling style that translates well to MMA – particularly at heavyweight.

Showing all the signs of an aggressive grappler since his days on the collegiate wrestling mat, Blaydes has always appeared to have a direct approach toward closed-quarter combat. Whether he is re-wrestling for underhooks, looking for mat returns, or implementing his patented blast-double takedown, Blaydes can execute offense like second nature (even when under heavy fire).

That said, I’ll be curious to see what kind of resistance the American encounters.

Growing up on the jiu-jitsu mats under the care of his father, Aspinall knows a thing or two about grappling. Sure, jiu-jitsu is obviously not the same art as wrestling, but Aspinall appears to be well-trained in the transitional department.

The English fighter has always appeared to have a solid reactionary sprawl in open space, but his comfortability off of his back appeared to cost him at times early on in his career.

Since then, Aspinall has been much more diligent about keeping his hips heavy and prioritizing superior position. And if his pressure doesn’t pull out a shot from his opponent, then Aspinall isn’t shy about changing his level and shooting a takedown of his own.

From topside, Aspinall parlays his aforementioned hips into dominant, fight-ending positions (showing an excellent passing ability in the process). But if Aspinall ends up underneath a heavy-handed fighter like Blaydes, then he’ll need to be urgent with his submission and scramble attempts.

Blaydes, like many wrestlers, does not play for your typical jiu-jitsu positions in hopes of finding a submission, as he’d seemingly rather dismantle opposition through punishing rides that see the Chicago native unleash strikes off smart wrist-feeds and controls. And whenever Blaydes gets his opponent’s back flat, hellacious, skull-splitting elbows aren’t usually far behind.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes odds

Despite technically losing last time out, public money continues to pour in on the English fighter as Aspinall is listed -440 and Blaydes +310 at the time of this writing, according to FanDuel.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes prediction, pick

Regardless of who won the first time around, seeing heavyweight MMA fights with betting lines north of a 2-to-1 spread always gets a suspicious squint out of me.

But between the current price tag on the previous winner to the fact that wrestling has always been a key ingredient for taking down hype trains, I don’t blame anyone for taking a shot on Blaydes in this spot.

I, however, have a harder time ignoring some of the wrestling inconsistencies from what is, oddly enough, one of the better wrestlers that the division has to offer.

From lacking takedowns opposite a knockout artist like Pavlovich to his questionable defensive lapses during the few times his fellow fighters decided to grapple him, Blaydes can be deceptively difficult to get a beat on.

For that reason, I’ll be semi-reluctantly sticking to my original pick from the first time around and will go with Aspinall to score a club-and-sub in Round 1.

Prediction: Aspinall inside the distance

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes start time, where to watch

As the co-main event, Aspinall and Blaydes are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.