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While the Tennessee Titans have been inside the top 10 and as high as top five in the vast majority of power rankings from different outlets this year, one version based on Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average) yielded a much different result.
Before we get to where the Titans landed in the DVOA power rankings compiled by Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar, here’s a basic definition of what it actually is:
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average) is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.
With that said, the Titans (-0.5%) were ranked at No. 14 on the list. Here’s what Farrar had to say about it.
The extent to which you believe that the Titans will compete for a Super Bowl berth in 2020 pretty much matches whether you think Ryan Tannehill was a one-year wonder in 2019. I’m on the side that believes Tannehill is in the right system and has the right attributes to be what he was last year, but FO is less bullish, given breakout seasons from guys like Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Case Keenum, and Ryan Fitzpatrick that never went anywhere. That’s why they have Tennessee projected with a -0.5% team DVOA, and an Average Wins total of 8.1 — a bit of a decline from last year’s 9-7 mark.
The list of teams that ranked ahead of the Titans are, well, interesting, and many of these squads would not land ahead of Tennessee in a typical power rankings setup after an AFC Championship run in 2019.
- New Orleans Saints
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Baltimore Ravens
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Indianapolis Colts
- Dallas Cowboys
- Seattle Seahawks
- New England Patriots
- Philadelphia Eagles
- San Francisco 49ers
- Atlanta Falcons
- Los Angeles Rams
- Tennessee Titans
While this is certainly an interesting way to look at things, we tend to stick to more traditional power ranking methods — and those methods have been favorable to the Titans throughout the offseason.
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