The Los Angeles Angels (46-48) visit the Minnesota Twins (41-55) Thursday to start a four-game series at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Angels lead 2-1.
LHP Andrew Heaney is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 5-7 with a 5.56 ERA (81 IP, 50 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 over 16 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-5, with 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K over 4 IP Friday against the Seattle Mariners.
- Heaney picked up a no-decision earlier this year against Minnesota (April 16) with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K in L.A.’s 10-3 victory.
- vs. Twins on the current roster (40 PA): 8.20 FIP with a .257 batting average (BA), .401 wOBA, .551 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.5 K% and 92.5 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Kenta Maeda makes his 16th start for the Twins. Maeda is 4-3 with a 4.71 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Minnesota’s 5-4 loss at the Detroit Tigers Saturday.
- vs. Angels on the current roster (22 PA): 4.77 FIP, .158 BA, .262 wOBA, .397 xSLG, 31.8 K% and 84.7 mph EV.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Angels at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Angels +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Twins -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Angels +1.5 (-150) | Twins -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Twins 6, Angels 1
Money line (ML)
GIMME the TWINS (-150) for 1 unit because we are getting some awkward “reverse line movement” in the betting market, Minnesota has an edge in the starting pitching matchup and the Twins are productive against lefties.
First of all, Minnesota opened as roughly a -135 favorite on the money line but it has been steamed down to the current number despite nearly 60% of the cash wagered being on L.A., according to Pregame.com.
One of the biggest red flags when handicapping sports is when the House makes the more popular side cheaper. The most obvious explanation is that the oddsmakers want more pro-Angels money.
Second, Maeda has been much more effective at home than on the road this season. For example, Maeda has a 1.93 FIP and .292 wOBA at home compared to a 4.87 road FIP and .345 road wOBA. He hasn’t allowed a home run in Minnesota while giving up 11 on the road.
Finally, the Twins lineup has hit left-handed pitching fairly well despite what their 11-22 record vs. lefty starters indicates. Minnesota ranks in the top-10 of wOBA, wRC+, OPS and hard-contact rate against lefty pitching.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the Twins -1.5 (+125) given how disappointing they’ve been this season. Minnesota is 10-23 ATS as a home favorite and an MLB-worst 15-31 ATS when playing outside of the division.
The first three Angels-Twins meetings this year were decided by at least 3 runs so there’s a high likelihood the spread doesn’t come into play but I’d need Minnesota’s run line to be priced north of +150 to wager on it.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-115) for a quarter unit as a “contrarian play” against a market that is barrelling into the Over but there’s a “line freeze” so oddsmakers are comfortable with their Angels-Twins total.
Almost 90% of the money is on the Over since the Over cashed in each of the first three head-to-head meetings this season but the total hasn’t budged from the opener.
Also, these teams have a combined 22-8 O/U record when these starters take the mound; however, that intel is baked into the projected total and I expect Maeda to give the Twins a quality start Thursday.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]