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This isn’t the most glamorous of trades, but the Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers swapping centers could work out for both teams.
The Sixers need to find a way to get out of Al Horford’s contract and solve the fit problems that he poses in the lineup. The Thunder, meanwhile, have a center who is on an expiring contract in Steven Adams.
It’s not a perfect trade by any means, but both teams would get positives out of it.
The proposal
Thunder receive: Al Horford, 2021 first-round pick
Sixers receive: Steven Adams
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Why the Thunder do it
This trade all comes down to the first-round pick. If Oklahoma City does succeed in trading Adams, there are few few ways to envision a deal landing a first-rounder in return. This is one of the only ways.
Horford has three years left on his deal at an average of $27 million per season. His first year perfectly matches Adams’ $27.5 million contract. In the short-term, this is the Thunder acquiring a first-round pick at no cost.
Beyond one year, Oklahoma City would have to find another trade to get off Horford’s contract. There’s reason to believe he still has talent — he’s just one year removed from a strong season with the Boston Celtics, one which earned him a deal worth $109 million over four years. It’s possible his struggles are more due to the poor fit with the Sixers than any real talent loss.
If that’s the case, he can revive some trade value and the Thunder could feasibly trade him for a second-round pick next offseason. That is what would make this a good deal for Oklahoma City.
Why the Sixers do it
Philadelphia would be a legitimate title contender if their floor spacing was better. Adams wouldn’t solve this problem, but the fact that he only has one year left on his contract does give them a chance to make this work.
There are a few avenues the 76ers could go if they get Adams. The ideal one is to trade him to a team in need of a center on an expiring deal and get back a second-round pick or an inexpensive bench option. That return would be as minimal as possible, but it would be a lot easier to trade Adams than Horford.
Another is to play him as a backup big. Adams a starting-caliber player to be sure, but the Sixers already know he won’t fit next to Embiid. If the star gets 30 minutes per game and Adams gets 20 minutes per game, that only puts them on the court at the same time for two minutes. Adams wouldn’t be happy, but again, it’s only a one-year deal. They’ll separate after the season.
The third option is to simply waive him. Adams would find a different team, and while paying him $27.5 million for no reason hurts, it’s better than paying Horford $81 million over three years.
In fact, saving that $27 million next offseason will put them one Tobais Harris salary dump away from creating max cap space in what is expected to be an absolutely loaded 2021 free agency class.
Why the Thunder don’t do it
The thought of paying Horford $81 million over three years is tough to swallow. If the Thunder can’t trade him and the Sixers are improved next year, they may have eaten this contract for a pick in the mid- to late-20s. That’s not a good deal.
It would be much, much simpler to either let Adams finish out his contract in Oklahoma City or find a suitor who will give the organization a second-round pick.
Why the Sixers don’t do it
In Year 1, this isn’t even a salary dump, as the contract of Horford is within $30,000 of Adams’. Giving up a first-round pick to swap these salaries for what would be an even worse fit is not a good idea, on paper.
But this is Daryl Morey’s team now, and his former organization, the Houston Rockets, never used their first-round picks.
That’s barely an exaggeration. Their last first-round pick was in 2015, when they selected Sam Dekker. Morey is not afraid of missing out on late first-round picks.
Opening up that money ahead of the 2021 free agency class is smart and necessary.
Who says no?
In my mind, giving up a late first-round pick is worth it to get out of Horford’s contract. If the Sixers do their due diligence and find nobody else will take Horford, they almost need to do it, not just for this year but for the 2021 free agency.
The Thunder, however, would be less interested. A rebuilding team needs to be getting off $20 million-plus contracts, not tacking on more years of paying 34-year-old players this much money.
I don’t think Oklahoma City says yes, but their is some relatively similar precedent: Just last offseason they traded for Chris Paul. Granted, his contract is less expensive and for fewer years than Russell Westbrook, but a team that was supposedly rebuilding added an expensive 35-year-old.
Then they revitalized his trade value. If Presti is confident his new coaching staff can do the same, the Thunder just won a first-round pick and potentially more.
If the Sixers need to convince the Thunder, they could also swap 2020 first-rounders. Oklahoma City would get back the No. 21 pick that originally belonged to them, and Philadelphia would slide down to pick No. 25.
That may make it easier for the Thunder.
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