When the Cowboys concluded the 2022 season with 33 forced turnovers on their ledger, they did something no NFL team had done since the Steelers in the early 70s. They led the NFL in the category in back-to-back seasons. Turnovers are generally regarded as an unstable stat which rely on too many outside variables to offer any consistency long-term. Yet low and behold, the Cowboys accomplished such feat, winning the race with a +3 margin over their closest challengers.
Entering Week 15 of the 2023 season, Dallas is pacing just 27 turnovers on the year, far behind their previous respective totals of 34 and 33. Six teams lead them in turnovers this season and with only four weeks to make up ground, they’ll be hard-pressed to reclaim their title a third season in a row.
Much like Brandon Aubrey’s field goal streak, all good things must come to an end. Also, like Brandon Aubrey’s field goal streak, that time has not yet come for the Cowboys.
After stealing three turnovers against Philadelphia on Sunday, Dallas’ defense is starting to heat up. And as a result, the league turnover crown has come back into striking distance for Quinn’s ball savvy crew.
Only three turnovers separate the Cowboys (21) from the top spot in the turnover ranks. Both Denver and Jacksonville stand at 24 today; on pace for 31 on the year. Assuming 32 turnovers will win the crown, the Cowboys need to average 2.75 turnovers the rest of the way. It’s a lofty goal but not an impossible goal.
The Dallas defense has logged three or more turnovers four times this season. And based on their upcoming opponents, they may get the chance to double that down the stretch.
every once in a while 2018-2019 josh allen returns and you get a shovel pass straight up in the air while in the grasp that has a 50/50 chance of being a completion or interception
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) December 10, 2023
The Commanders (fifth) and Bills (eighth) are both in the NFL’s top-10 in giveaways. Currently tied for 11th, the Lions and Dolphins aren’t far behind.
Donovan Wilson forces the fumble and the @DallasCowboys' offense will go back on the field
📺: #PHIvsDAL on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/YCEDNi5Ozb pic.twitter.com/wRPOE2ojdZ— NFL (@NFL) December 11, 2023
While Dallas’ most recent takeaways came from stripped ball carriers, the majority of turnovers are a byproduct of the pass defense. Between fumbles created from the pass rush and interceptions created from the secondary, pass defense is the most likely avenue for turnover success. It just so happens three of their remaining four opponents are top-10 in early-down pass frequency, indicating turnovers could be there for the taking.
Is reclaiming the turnover crown likely?
No, but it wasn’t likely last season either and still Quinn and company found a way to make it happen. With turnover-prone pass-heavy opponents on the remaining schedule and a defense playing arguably their best ball of the season, the Cowboys have a real shot at getting that crown a third time.
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