The Duke Blue Devils should be used to the idea of being underdogs on the football field by now, but Thursday’s TaxSlayer Gator Bowl against the Ole Miss Rebels presents an entirely new challenge.
Both teams ended the year with nine wins, but the Rebels finished inside the top seven in scoring offense and scoring defense as they contended for the College Football Playoff all season. With a 28-10 victory over the Georgia Bulldogs on their resume, a late upset to the Florida Gators probably kept Lane Kiffin’s team out of the expanded bracket.
With most of the Ole Miss starters choosing to play the postseason battle even without national title hopes, oddsmakers give the Blue Devils a remote chance to upset the Rebels. The idea that Duke would win nine games in its first season under [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] also sounded insane before the season, however, and any team with three losses has its weak points.
Here are three reasons why the Blue Devils can clinch their second 10-win season in school history.
Even without many opt-outs, Ole Miss lost some key starters to injury
The Blue Devils won’t benefit from opt-outs the same way other SEC bowl opponents have after Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart and a handful of other All-SEC names choosing to suit up. However, even with a full squad, injuries have taken their toll on the skill position talent.
Receiver Tre Harris ended the year with 1,030 yards, 987 of which came in the first seven games before hip and groin injuries started to keep him off the field. He’s caught one pass since October 12, and even if he plays, he likely won’t be the player he was in September. Running back Henry Parrish is done for the year with a knee injury after he stacked 678 rushing yards in the first nine games, and safety Yam Banks is done for the year after 21 total tackles and a trio of pass breakups. This isn’t an Ole Miss team at full strength.
The Rebels struggle to put games away in high-impact situations
How does a team averaging 37.5 points and allowing 13.9 points per game lose three times? Well, the Rebels aren’t a premier team in the biggest moments. Conversion stats and red-zone numbers can be a little goofy in small sample sizes, but across a full season, they’re usually worth paying attention to, and they expose a flaw in this Ole Miss offense.
The Rebels convert 41.4% of their third downs (59th in the FBS) and 59.3% of their fourth downs (43rd). They only scored points on 80% of their red-zone possessions, 101st in the nation, and their red-zone touchdown rate of 58.2% is just 86th. If the Blue Devils can win a few third- or fourth-down attempts, Duke can swing the mismatch in a big way.
The Blue Devils had a month to create an entirely new offensive approach around Henry Belin IV
The Blue Devils lost quarterbacks [autotag]Maalik Murphy[/autotag] and Grayson Loftis to the transfer portal, but there’s a way that works in Duke’s favor. Yes, Murphy set a single-season school record with 26 passing touchdowns, and Belin won’t match his dropback production, but that stylistic difference could be an advantage for the underdogs.
Belin plays a very different brand of football from Murphy, a much more mobile quarterback who opens up options on the ground, and he helped the Blue Devils defeat NC State last season with 107 passing yards and two touchdowns on four completions. He’s thrown a single pass and run the ball five times in 2024, so Mississippi has almost no film to study apart from that night against the Wolfpack 14 months ago.
With offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer having multiple weeks to prepare a new plan, the Rebels have no idea what to expect from the Duke offense, and the element of surprise can win games.