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Want to secure the first pick in the 2020 NFL draft and Joe Burrow via trade with the Cincinnati Bengals?
Better be ready to give up more than three first-round picks.
It almost sounds ridiculous — but not as ridiculous as the Bengals giving up a chance at the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck who happens to be a hometown kid so they can settle for another passer and extra unknown picks elsewhere.
Recently, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com decided to do a mock with the Bengals trading out of one and wrote that “An NFL executive I consulted with felt that including all three of Miami’s first-round picks in this deal would be too much.”
And that’s why NFL executives won’t be trading for the first pick.
A look at advanced metrics throws out a hypothetical and explains why the Bengals still lose:
Let’s revisit this old tweet from @PFF_Moo:
Even if CAR gave up THREE 1st round picks AND two 2nd round picks AND a 3rd round pick, they still win the trade 59% of the time.
Miami’s three 1st round picks are not enough to move the Bengals. End of story.https://t.co/mg2nbLLXxk
— Evan McPhillips (@emcphil) March 24, 2020
And who needs advanced metrics when common sense can rule the day?
Back in 2012, the Washington Redskins shipped away a trio of first-round picks and a second-round pick to move up and get Robert Griffin. In 2016, the Los Angele Rams sent two first-round picks and six total to move up and get Jared Goff.
Why on Earth wouldn’t the cost keep climbing with inflation? And why would the Bengals settle for similar compensation while giving up the rights to a better prospect than Griffin and Goff?
They wouldn’t. And we’re talking about Mike Brown — the guy who turned down New Orleans’ entire draft class and first and third-round picks the year after in 1999 so he could draft Akili Smith.
Could the Bengals use three first-round picks right now? Of course. But the newfound aggressiveness in free agency has worked to patch holes. And there’s nothing guaranteed about those picks — they’re merely assets. Admittedly, let’s not pretend the Bengals have been great at drafting early lately anyway.
Burrow is the sure thing and takes the guesswork out of the pick. If the Bengals take him and he flops, they still did the right thing. If they trade out and he becomes the next Peyton Manning…readers know the rest.
Besides general logic, there’s just too much here saying the Bengals have to stay put. The hometown kid after the best-ever season for a collegiate passer. The dwindling fanbase, empty seats, upcoming stadium negotiations, possible fan revolt if the pick isn’t Burrow, etc.
While trade speculation isn’t going to go away and the Bengals will listen like they always do, there isn’t going to be a team willing to really move the needle in discussions. A 1999-type offer isn’t coming and probably wouldn’t do it anyway, either.
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