History is overwhelmingly on Duke’s side in Friday’s first-round game against Vermont.
No. 4 seeds have a 120-32 record in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, roughly an 85% clip, and the Catamounts have one just one of their nine first-round tournament games.
However, if you’re a pessimist or overly superstitious, there’s a weird parallel to worry about.
Vermont won its only full-field NCAA Tournament game in 2005 against Syracuse (well, it’s only full-field tournament game, as the Catamounts beat fellow No. 16 seed Lamar in the First Four back in 2012). Yes, it’s been nearly two decades, but that year was Vermont’s third consecutive tournament appearance, and the Catamounts were a No. 13 seed.
This year, Vermont is a No. 13 seed, and for the second time in school history, they’ve made the NCAA Tournament three straight times.
That 2004-05 Vermont team ended the conference tournament with six losses, the exact same number the 2023-24 Catamounts have thus far.
Granted, Vermont has been a No. 13 seed three times since that fateful achievement against the Orange, and they failed to win any of those three games. Syracuse also got them back in 2010, the Catamounts’ next tournament appearance, with an opening win, this time with the Orange as a No. 1 seed and Vermont as a lowly No. 16.
However, if you zoom out as wide as possible and squint, there’s at least something invoking that 2005 team.
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