If you only judged the Green Bay Packers on their first offensive drive of each game, you’d have to assume Matt LaFleur’s group was one of the very best offenses in the NFL.
The problem for the Packers has been maintaining the fast starts.
Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic has a telling statistic: While the Packers average 3.77 points on opening drives this season, they average just 2.06 on all other drives – and no other NFL team has a bigger dropoff after the first drive.
There’s no doubting how effective the Packers have been in the first quarter of games, and it’s a credit to LaFleur’s ability to craft an opening script on offense.
Rodgers has been especially deadly early in games.
The Packers quarterback has thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception in the first quarter. He’s averaging 10.3 yards per attempt and completing 76 percent of his passes, and his passer rating in the first quarter is 136.1. Among qualified quarterbacks, Rodgers leads the NFL in passing yards, touchdown passes and passer rating in the first quarter of games this season.
The Packers have as many drives ending in a touchdown (14) as drives ending in a punt (14) in the first quarter.
Overall, the Packers have scored 98 points in the first quarter, which ranks third in the NFL in 2019, trailing only the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots. The Packers are +52 in scoring margin in the first quarter but -13 in the second, third and fourth quarters combined.
The fast starts just haven’t translated into consistent production on offense.
Rodgers’ rating plummets to 92.6 in the second, third and fourth quarters. He completes only 61.2 percent of his passes and averages 6.6 yards per attempt after the first quarter.
It’s fair to wonder if the offense changes in a significant way after the opening script. The first quarter is mostly pre-planned, creating the purest form of the LaFleur offense. But does the operation devolve into some awkward mix of what Rodgers wants and what LaFleur is trying to do after the first quarter?
It’s also possible LaFleur isn’t as effective calling plays and stringing together plays after the opening script is over. And defenses eventually adjust, creating the need for a counterpunch on offense.
The Packers have to get it figured out over the final three games. Fast starts are important, obviously, but if they can’t maintain it over the final three quarters, it’ll be difficult to win big games in January.
More importantly, the Packers must find out why the offense clicks so well early and why it hits lulls after. Is it a scheme issue? An adjustment issue? A quarterback issue? A play call issue?
The Packers can operate on offense at a high level. They’ve proven that in the first quarter all year. Now, it’s about finding consistency after the fast starts.