This 1 stat explains much of LSU’s offensive success in 2022

Success on first downs was a major factor for LSU last fall.

Third down has always been known as the “money down”.

How a team performs on third down is thought to go a long way toward determining the outcome of the game — and for the most part, that’s true.

What leads to success on third down? You need a good offense and a play-caller dialing up the right thing at the right moment. You need the players to execute it, too.

But the easiest way to be good on third down is to not get there. The best offenses take care of business before late downs even arrive. When they do arrive, they’re manageable. Third and three is a lot easier than third and nine.

LSU’s offense was efficient last year. It wasn’t explosive, but it was efficient. The main culprit leading to that success was LSU’s performance on first down.

LSU’s offense ran 997 plays in 2022. Only 201 of those came on third or fourth down. A percentage around 20%.

The only offenses who ran late down players at a lower clip were Georgia, USC, Alabama and Syracuse. Three of those units were some of the sports best. Other offenses in the top 10 include UCLA, UTSA and Oregon.

According to CollegeFootballData, LSU was eighth in first down PPA/EPA. On second and third down, LSU was just 30th and 42nd. Not terrible, but not elite and far from the top 10.

The conversion rate tells a bit of a different story, where LSU was one of the sport’s best on late downs. LSU was one of just seven FBS teams to rank in the top 15 in avoiding late downs, but also top 15 when it came to converting them.

Despite all the consistency issues LSU had on offense, the numbers still suggest this was a good unit across the board, capable of handling every situation.

That bodes well for Mike Denbrock’s unit this fall.

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