The New England Patriots had a pass-catcher problem in 2019. And the solution seems obvious. Bill Belichick should go out a sign a big-name free agent during free agency. The obvious answer isn’t always the correct one.
Receiver A.J. Green will be available, for example. Or maybe the Patriots can look beyond the free agency market to pry Odell Beckham Jr. away from the Cleveland Browns in a trade. But those deals could prove debilitating for New England. They also hinge largely up on Tom Brady’s return — and they work off the assumption that Brady, who is set to enter free agency, is still a desirable quarterback after his rough 2019 season. Green’s contract is likely to exceed his production, considering his injury history. Unless the Patriots get him to accept an incentive-laden deal, he won’t be worth the money. He won’t take that show-me deal unless he really wants to play with Brady or for Belichick.
Beckham, while extremely talented, has pricey value on the trade market, even at what is probably his lowest point. He may not even be excited about joining the Patriots, if Brady isn’t on the team in 2020.
While the receiver position is thin, there are a handful of supremely talented tight ends hitting the market in free agency. These players are far more likely to be worth their large salaries. In particular, the Patriots should consider Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper, who were two of the most productive tight ends in the NFL in 2019. Even Eric Ebron, who had a breakout season in 2018, could be a good option. Just one of the three will do.
There’s a common adage: Belichick doesn’t go after top talent, he develops it. And that adage is wrong. The Patriots coach and general manager went after Jared Cook last offseason — he was the premier free agent at the position. And Belichick hasn’t done a great job developing tight end talent in the wake of Rob Gronkowski’s retirement. In fact, Jacob Hollister put together a nice season with the Seattle Seahawks (41 catches, 349 yards, three touchdowns) after Belichick traded Hollister during the 2019 offseason. He essentially bested the production of the Patriots’ tight ends combined (36 catches, 418 yards, two touchdowns).
Belichick will spend for talent, if the talent is right (see: Stephon Gilmore). If the Patriots pursued a tight end in free agency, they could finally begin to close the gap in production after Gronkowski’s departure. New England also has some potential at the receiver position, with 2019 first-round pick N’Keal Harry and veteran Mohamed Sanu, who cost the Patriots a 2020 second-round pick at the trade deadline. This year might be the perfect offseason to spend big on tight end to support Brady or the team’s next quarterback.
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