There’s no question the Los Angeles Rams are in the driver’s seat in the NFC West, especially after Sunday’s results. In addition to their win over the New York Jets, the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks both lost in Week 16.
The Cardinals’ loss eliminated them from playoff contention, leaving only the Rams and Seahawks in the race for the division. With a one-game lead and only two weeks remaining, the Rams haven’t quite locked up the NFC West.
They can clinch the division with a win over the Cardinals on Saturday and a Seahawks loss to the Bears on Thursday night, but in the event that both teams win this week, there could be a complicated tiebreaker in play for Week 18.
If the Rams and Seahawks have the same record at the end of the season, it could come down to a strength of victory or strength of schedule tiebreaker. The Rams have a big advantage in both tiebreakers, but that doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to end the season on top of the division.
Should the NFC West come down to a strength of victory tiebreaker, it’ll take a miracle for the Seahawks to win it. Based on the chart below from Deniz Selman, these are the teams that can help the Rams by winning in the final two weeks.
- Saints
- Bengals
- Vikings
- Bills
- Browns
- Commanders
- 49ers
- Raiders
- Chiefs
- Panthers
- Jets
- Packers
If #Rams lose to Arizona 👉 #SEAvsLAR Week 18 will be for NFC West (regardless of Seahawks-Bears result).
If Rams beat Arizona 👉 #Seahawks‘ only chance is to win both their games *AND* get a strength of victory miracle.
Color-coded guide of remaining games for SOV tally 👇 pic.twitter.com/ImlENMtdUT— Deniz Selman (@denizselman33) December 23, 2024
There are a couple of reasons these teams can help Los Angeles. Either they already lost to the Rams, which helps L.A.’s strength of victory, or they’re playing teams that have lost to the Seahawks.
Hopefully it doesn’t come down to the Rams needing the 49ers to win because rooting for a hated rival is never easy, but it’s something to keep in mind as the season winds to a close.
Again, the tiebreaker is complicated and greatly favors the Rams, but it’s also the reason Los Angeles may not be able to clinch the West simply with a win on Saturday against Arizona.
The breakdown in this post from Joe Ferreira is even more detailed, showing that the Rams could clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker in Week 17 if they get at least three wins and a tie from the Saints (tonight), Bengals, Commanders, Bills, 49ers, Vikings or Browns next week.
Week 17 NFL Playoff Scenarios:
DETROIT LIONS
Detroit clinches North division and homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
1) DET win + MIN lossPHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Philadelphia clinches East division:
1) PHI win or tie
2) WAS loss or tieLOS ANGELES RAMS…
— Joe Ferreira (@JoeNFL) December 23, 2024
OK, now you can put away the calculator and abacus.