We are entering the election-predicting mode of our coverage of Wisconsin’s 2023 football season. And we have a proclamation to make after the Badgers’ 15-6 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday: Wisconsin’s quest to win the Big Ten West in the division’s final year is over.
Is it over mathematically? Not quite. ESPN FPI still gives the Badgers a 17% chance to get the job done, as they are still tied with Iowa in the loss column with six conference games remaining.
But given the context of the rest of the season, how the Badgers looked on Saturday and Tanner Mordecai’s possible long-term injury, I am naming Iowa the winner of this race.
To flip the result, Wisconsin needs Iowa, which has five conference games left, to lose one more game than it does the rest of the way. The challenge rests in Iowa having a cupcake schedule the rest of the way: vs. Minnesota, at Northwestern, vs. Rutgers, vs. Illinois and at Nebraska.
Compare that with Wisconsin’s upcoming slate of at Illinois, vs. Ohio State, at Indiana, vs. Northwestern, vs. Nebraska and at Minnesota. The Badgers would need to go 5-1 in those six games and pray the Hawkeyes drop two contests.
I should note: that can easily happen. Iowa is on to its backup quarterback, doesn’t have any of its top tight ends and boasts one of the worst offenses in the country (again). But Wisconsin took advantage of all of that and even won Saturday’s contest on a down-to-down basis, seen below:
Did We Really Get Beat that Bad?
Net Success Rates in Week 7 pic.twitter.com/hJmaX6nnml— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 16, 2023
Yet Iowa wins how Iowa always wins: timely turnovers, a strong defense and the best college punter I’ve ever seen in Tory Taylor.
Even if the Hawkeyes do slip up twice the rest of the way, giving Wisconsin life in the division if the team can win out…do we trust this Badger team to suddenly put it all together? I do not.
Saturday’s loss was startling. And it has me officially conceding the Big Ten West.