It felt certain the Tua Tagovailoa would be a lock for a top-two pick in the upcoming 2020 NFL draft … until the Alabama quarterback was declared out for the rest of the season after a hip injury against Mississippi State in November.
That’s when the speculation began — would Tagovailoa wait another year to declare and stay with the Crimson Tide for one more season, proving to NFL scouts what he could do when he was healthy? Or would he say goodbye to college and declare anyway, a statement that what he showed on tape was enough to make him a top pick?
It turned out to be the latter. He’s off to the draft, which means there are some winners and losers here to sift through:
Winners
NFL fans
The NFL draft is always better when there are big-name quarterbacks in it, mostly because that’s when you get some wild trades that change everything. Until Monday, it was pretty much LSU QB Joe Burrow who was a cut above everyone, with Oregon’s Justin Herbert getting a little buzz.
But now? Tagovailoa is suddenly an intriguing X-factor, one who could have an NFL team or two fall in love with him, and that could mean the next team on this list could change the entire draft.
Detroit Lions
“What?!” you say. “They already have a quarterback in Matthew Stafford.”
True. But they also have the No. 3 pick. You assume that the Bengals will take Burrow and the Redskins will grab Ohio State pass rusher Chase Young. That means if there’s a quarterback-hungry team out there willing to trade up — the Dolphins are right there at No. 5 and have a ton of picks to use as trade capital, the Chargers are behind them and probably should groom Philip Rivers’ heir … and what if the Buccaneers (14th overall) don’t retain Jameis Winston? — they could end up with a really good return for their pick.
You could also make the same case for the New York Giants at No. 4.
Tua Tagovailoa
Obviously! He’ll make NFL money instead of having to wait a year. And I bet teams are willing to look past the injury and draft a player who was a Heisman Trophy nominee in 2018.
Losers
Alabama
I don’t doubt that Nick Saban will find a starting quarterback in the group of Mac Jones, Bryce Young and Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua’s brother). But he probably would have been happier with Tua — a known quantity — at the helm.
Justin Herbert, Jacob Eason
They might have been the quarterbacks that teams reached for by trading up. That could still happen, but it seems more likely that these two drop, and that means they’ll make less money on their rookie deals.
Quarterback-hungry teams
Oh, sure, there’s more talent to choose from with Tagovailoa in the mix. But that just means there’s a bigger chance some team could send a bunch of picks to one of those franchises who doesn’t need a quarterback and mortgage their future in the process. It happens, and sometimes it doesn’t pay off (see Trubisky, Mitchell).
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