As if the Cincinnati Bengals’ turnaround from 4-11-1 in 2020 to AFC Champion in 2021 wasn’t reminder enough that the fortunes of an NFL franchise can change in a single offseason, the entire AFC West is out to prove it yet again.
But while the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders are all seemingly moving towards more winning in 2022, there’s reason to believe the Kansas City Chiefs could be going the opposite direction. As their division rivals spend the offseason acquiring premium talent to bolster their rosters, the Chiefs are downgrading.
They reportedly agreed to trade three-time All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins on Wednesday, significantly reducing Patrick Mahomes’ options in the passing game. It was a deal they likely had to make considering the money Hill was looking for, but one that leaves a major — and very fast — hole in their receiving corps. Travis Kelce is still a huge weapon, but the good feelings behind adding JuJu Smith-Schuster are lessened now that he’ll likely have to step in as WR1.
Chiefs are trading six-time Pro-Bowl WR Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins for five draft picks: a 2022 1st-round pick (No. 29), a 2nd-round pick (No. 50) and a 4th-round pick, as well as 4th- and 6th-round picks in the 2023 draft, sources tell ESPN.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 23, 2022
Mahomes is still a wizard, capable of making things happen no matter who’s on the other end. But we saw him struggle in stretches last season even with Hill on the field, including in the Chiefs’ second-half meltdown against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game. KC also lost a big piece on defense, moving on from safety Tyrann Mathieu after signing former Houston Texan Justin Reid.
The Chiefs still hold the best odds to win the AFC West at +140 on Tipico Sportsbook, reflecting the respect for Mahomes, Andy Reid and a championship pedigree that can’t be discounted in their ability to continue finding ways to win. Also an offseason far from over, with the NFL Draft still looming. But there’s no doubt that since the Chiefs started their run of six straight division titles in 2016, the gap between them and the bottom of the division has never been closer. The Chargers have +260 odds, the Broncos +270 and the Raiders +650.
Kansas City’s Super Bowl odds are still third-shortest in the NFL at +900, but the Broncos and Chargers also have top 10 odds. And both are probably better plays at this point in the offseason. Mahomes is amazing, but Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert and even Derek Carr all range from pretty good to great quarterbacks too. They all have good weapons to throw the ball, and the Broncos and Raiders have defenses that ranked higher than the Chiefs in Football Outsiders’ DVOA last season. The Chargers, who were only two spots behind KC, added cornerback J.C. Jackson and linebacker Khalil Mack this offseason.
Right now, the games are still only being played on paper. Until someone dethrones them, the Chiefs are Kings of the AFC West. These teams still have to produce on the field. But while the odds say the Chiefs remain the team to beat in the AFC West, it’s probably time to start questioning whether that’s really true.