24. Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
Height: 6’6″ Weight: 236
40-Yard Dash: 4.68 seconds
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: 35.5 inches
Broad Jump: 10 feet, 3 inches
3-Cone Drill: 7.06 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.46 seconds
60-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Bio: It was no surprise when Justin Herbert committed to the University of Oregon in October 2015. Herbert was a three-star recruit coming out of Sheldon High School in Oregon and a varsity athlete in football, basketball and baseball. He turned down offers from Montana State, Nevada and Portland State to enroll at the school he grew up rooting for as a kid.
Herbert became the starting quarterback early in his college career, posting eight starts as a true freshman. His sophomore campaign put him on the map, when he completed 67.5% of his passes for 1,983 yards and 15 touchdowns, with just five interceptions. However, whether due to a coaching change or other reasons, Herbert never truly matched what he did as a sophomore, although he did produce solid numbers last year, completing 66.8% of his throws for 3,471 yards and 32 touchdowns, against just six interceptions. But on yards per attempt, for example, Herbert never quite matched the 9.6 mark he posted as a sophomore. Furthermore, Oregon had a chance to put itself in the national championship picture last year, but the Ducks suffered losses against Auburn (early) and Arizona State (late), and the QB did not fare well in those contests.
Stat to Know: Something to keep in mind with Herbert is this: Despite his size and massive hands (they measured 10 inches at the combine), Herbert has 26 career fumbles in 43 starts.
Strengths: The first thing that catches your eye with Herbert is his arm strength. He has very easy velocity and can make eye-popping throws to all levels of the field. An area where Herbert truly stands out is his ability to read and attack the leverage of the nearest defenders almost anywhere on the field. Take, for example, this read and throw against Cal during the 2018 campaign:
The Ducks have twins to the left and run a switch vertical concept, with the inside receiver running a vertical route along the boundary while the outside receiver works inside and then up the seam. Herbert sees the man coverage and sees that the defenders do not switch their responsibilities in coverage, meaning the inside defender has to work toward the outside to cover the boundary vertical route. Seeing this, Herbert throws this ball to the outside, almost making a back-shoulder throw 40 yards downfield.
Impressive.
Herbert is also athletic enough to be a true weapon in the running game. He might not be Kyler Murray, but he is able to keep defenses honest, particularly on the edge on zone-read designs.
The offense he was operating at Oregon, however, did not do him or his evaluation any favors. The bulk of his throws were made to the outside or near the line of scrimmage, and the Ducks used a lot of tunnel or bubble screens. He was not asked to read the middle of the field much, and when he did, it was more of an adventure than NFL teams might like. That is why his experience at the Senior Bowl, in Zac Taylor’s offense, was huge for him. During that week of practice, he showed more of an ability to attack the middle of the field and manipulate defenders with his eyes.
Weaknesses: Did he peak his sophomore year? It sounds like a harsh question, but NFL scouts are going to wonder why he did not continue to grow after what he showed in 2017. Now, development is not exactly linear — especially at the quarterback position — and coaching changes might have played a part.
Herbert also struggled on those occasions when he was able to attack the middle of the field. It seemed at times as if he was unable to figure out how to layer or feather throws in that area of the field, when he needed to drop the ball behind linebackers and in front of safeties. That is an acquired taste for quarterbacks, and Josh Allen is a recent example of a quarterback who might have lacked that ability in college but who is learning it on the fly in the NFL.
Finally, Herbert faces some criticism about how he fared in Oregon’s big games. Many point to the loss at Arizona State as an example of Herbert coming up short. But even in that game you see glimpses of what he can be in the NFL — but what he could also be if things go poorly. He threw interceptions in that game where it seemed like he was doing his best Shane Falco imitation, falling prey to quicksand.
But he also put this drive together (turn volume up for video breakdown):
Herbert leads a TD drive against ASU. Quick breakdown.
This game might be the perfect Rorschach test with him. Like him or not, you'll see something to support that position. pic.twitter.com/T9XAItHIk4
— Mark Schofield (@MarkSchofield) January 10, 2020
Conclusion: Despite the weaknesses and Herbert’s offensive system, there is a talented quarterback inside who is waiting to be unlocked by consistent coaching and development. His arm strength and ability to attack leverage with well-placed throws to all areas of the field will be his calling card early in the league, as will his athleticism. If placed into a spread-based offense that looks to attack downfield off play-action, but also incorporates some West Coast elements for him, he would be in a spot to succeed. Some offensive systems, however, such as New England’s, would require more of a developmental curve.
Comparison: The team that drafts Herbert hopes to get someone in line with Ryan Tannehill, which is likely the top end of his spectrum. That team probably fears that he is more in line with his potential NFL floor, which looks more like Blaine Gabbert.