On a statistical level, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love produced nothing short of an elite stretch of play during games against the Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions over the last four weeks.
A lot of different numbers can help paint the picture of quarterback play, but none are truly perfect. Looking at a wide range of statistics does a better job of describing what is happening on the field at the quarterback position.
Let’s go through the big ones.
Between Weeks 9-12, Love is…
3rd in EPA/play (.241)
7th in success rate (49.4)
6th in yards per attempt (8.0)
6th in adjusted completion percentage (78.7)
7th in completion percentage over expected (3.4)
4th in EPA+CPOE (0.154)
3rd in TD passes (8)
4th in passer rating (103.1)
7th in air yards (8.5)
5th in PFF passing grade (83.9)
5th in big time throws (9)
3rd in completions 20+ yards (11)
The small sample size caveat obviously applies here. But any four-game period can’t be dismissed completely; it’s roughly equal to a quarter of a season. And the point here isn’t to argue Love is an elite quarterback but instead to show he’s capable of producing high-level quarterback play over an extended period of games. If nothing else, this stretch establishes a high-end projection of what Love could become on a more consistent basis.
So many things go into quarterback numbers, but what has improved for Love and the Packers?
— Love is hitting more of the “layup” throws, drastically increasing his completion percentage.
— Love is connecting on more deep shots.
— The rookie wide receivers and tight ends are making fewer mistakes and creating more explosive plays.
— Second-year receivers Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson finally settled in, and Watson is coming off a breakout performance.
— Love is hitting more plays over the middle of the field.
— Coach and playcaller Matt LaFleur has a better grasp of what Love and the young skill position players do well, and there are fewer in-play mental mistakes.
— Love completed passes to 12 different receivers. Five different players have 100 or more receiving yards over the last four games.
The Packers have made tremendous progress in the passing game over the last month and have hit their stride entering a pivotal point in the schedule. Green Bay scored an upset win over the Lions to get to 5-6 and will now play four teams with a losing record over the final five games, creating a real opportunity — especially if Love and the passing game continues to play at a high level — to get to nine or more wins.