On the field, the 2024 Seattle Seahawks will look a lot like the same team that wrapped the 2023 season. Geno Smith will still be quarterback, slinging passes to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The running back platoon of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet will run around edges set by tackles Abe Lucas and Charles Cross. The defense will be led by Devon Witherspoon and Leonard Williams.
But the guy calling the plays will be different. That’s what Seattle hopes will make all the difference.
Pete Carroll retired this offseason, calling it a career after 14 years, 137 regular season wins and a Super Bowl victory with the Seahawks. In his stead comes Mike Macdonald, another defensive-minded head coach Seattle hopes can bridge the gap between Carroll’s throwback mentality and an evolving NFL. That leaves big shoes for Macdonald to fill, but given his new team’s biggest weakness, they’re shoes that might just fit.
The Seahawks’ defense was less than the sum of its parts to wrap the Carroll era
Seattle rose to perennial contention under Carroll via two traits: a smothering defense and an efficient, run-heavy offense. From 2012 to 2015, a stretch in which the Seahawks won 46 regular season games and appeared in two Super Bowls, Carroll’s teams ranked no worse than fourth in the NFL in rushing yards over a given season. His defense ranked first overall in points allowed every one of those years.
That became less and less sustainable as the league evolved toward high impact passing offenses. Carroll eventually leaned away from the run, ranking 17th, 27th, 22nd and 31st in the league in handoffs over his final four seasons. His defense fell into a vortex as well, ranking 22nd, 28th, 26th and then 30th in yards allowed in the same space.
Seattle was able to overcome that and average more than nine wins per season over that closing stretch, but also failed to win a single playoff game. This all happened despite a mishmash of star defensive players and solid starters including, but not limited to:
- Bobby Wagner
- Quandre Diggs
- Jamal Adams
- DJ Reed
- Riq Woolen
- Uchenna Nwosu
- Devon Witherspoon
- Leonard Williams
- Julian Love
- Jordyn Brooks
That group couldn’t tread water in the turbulent seas of the NFC West. Now Macdonald, brain behind the Baltimore Ravens defense that finished third, then first in the NFL in points allowed in his two seasons as defensive coordinator, gets to work with a group that discarded some of its older members — Diggs, Wagner and Adams are all gone — but brings back Love, Williams, Woolen, Nwosu, and Witherspoon along with 2024 first round pick Byron Murphy.
That’s solid star power, but Macdonald’s strength comes in developing players to the peak of their abilities. Geno Stone and Justin Madubuike emerged as valuable starters under his watch. Patrick Queen, a former first round pick, played the best football of his career after Macdonald became DC (though the addition of Roquan Smith certainly played a role). Kyle Van Noy revived his career, once again, with a nine sack 2023 despite not signing with Baltimore until late September.
Who could this apply to in the Pacific Northwest? Woolen backslid a bit after an impressive rookie campaign. Boye Mafe may be on the brink of a breakout after nine sacks (with only 16 quarterback hits) in 2023. Nwosu returns to the lineup after missing 11 games last year due to injury. Tyrel Dodson was signed after four unremarkable seasons as a Buffalo Bill and Jerome Baker arrived after six years as a Miami Dolphin. Those two aren’t quite Queen and Smith, but Macdonald’s track record suggests he can make that duo a useful binary star system in the middle of the field.
If that defense can’t improve, Geno Smith can still push Seattle to a winning record
That isn’t a controversial statement. Smith has done it before. He did it the last two years, winning nine games each season.
But the pressure is squarely on his shoulders in 2024. He’s auditioning for a new head coach. He can be released after this season while leaving only $13.5 million behind in dead cap space (and is scheduled to hit free agency in 2026 anyway).
Smith regressed from his surprising, comeback player of the year 2022 form, but still remained an above average passer. His completion rate dropped from a league-best 69.8 to 64.2 even as his average throw distance fell from 7.6 yards to 7.0 (and his receiving corps added Jaxon Smith-Njigba). His touchdown rate dipped (from 30 in 17 games to 20 in 15) and his passer rating slid from 100.9 to 92.1.
Still, he wasn’t bad by any stretch. His four fourth quarter comebacks and five game winning drives led the league. Eliminate garbage time — the snaps taken when the Seahawks’ win probability was either over 80 percent or under 20 percent — and Smith’s 0.161 expected points added (EPA) per dropback was 10th best in the NFL.
So what caused the numbers downturn? Blocking was a big culprit, as Smith’s pressure rate rose from 22 percent to 25.5, the sixth-worst number in the league. This also made him less effective as a runner, as he left the pocket less often and gained fewer yards per scramble than he did in his impressive 2022 (34 scrambles for 310 yards that year, 20 for 158 in 2023). He was also slightly worse as a passer; his bad throw rate jumped from 11.8 to 14.6. The latter is still a top 10 figure, just not the No. 1 ranking Smith held in his first full season as Seattle’s starter.
Smith turns 34 in October, so it’s likely we’ve already seen his ceiling as a quarterback (though we thought that back in 2021 and, well…). Fortunately for him, Carroll was proactive in adding reinforcements that can prolong his peak.
Metcalf remains a stud. Lockett’s impact may be waning as a speed-focused wideout who’ll turn 32 soon, but his ability to avoid contact has kept extra miles from his odometer. Smith-Njigba is a curious tale who averaged fewer than 10 yards per catch last year and whose 1.26 yards per route run pegged him as less effective than Justin Watson or Wan’Dale Robinson. Still, he’s the same guy who could take over entire Big Ten games at Ohio State, so it would be foolish to write him off after a decent but unremarkable rookie year.
Getting Cross and Lucas back to full health after the two combined for 20 games last season would be a boon to that passing game as well. And if Macdonald would like to establish the run, Walker and Charbonnet remain fresh-legged tailbacks, neither of whom is even 24 years old yet.
Smith should, at the very least, return to 2023 form — again, a guy who was one of the league’s top 10 most efficient quarterbacks when the game mattered. Getting his two rising starting tackles on the field at the same time should only help, though losing Damien Lewis at guard and replacing him with Laken Tomlinson could create issues.
***
The table has been set for Macdonald to succeed in his first season in Seattle. The offense isn’t quite in set-it-and-forget-it mode, but should be solid enough to keep the Seahawks in playoff contention. Where he’ll have to prove himself is on the defensive side of the ball, as his new team has a solid combination of young talent and older players looking to stand out. In the past, Macdonald has been able to maximize those returns, but that only covers two seasons under an established head coach in John Harbaugh.
The bigger concern is, well, the rest of the NFC West is a shark tank. The San Francisco 49ers remain stacked and hungry. The Los Angeles Rams needed half a season to rebuild into a playoff team. The Arizona Cardinals are putting down roots as a future contender (it’s still a year or two away, but it’s beginning to come into focus).
It’s possible Macdonald plays his cards right in year one and still ends up right where Carroll left at nine wins. It’s possible things get worse. But the combination of roster and head coach suggest there’s more reasons to be optimistic about the Seahawks this fall than pessimistic. When you’re replacing a legend on the sideline, that’s about all for which you can hope.
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