The 2022 San Francisco 49ers were supposed to look different. Instead, they’re a slice cut from the same cake head coach Kyle Shanahan has been baking for years.
2022 was going to be the year Trey Lance transformed the team into something else, but his Week 2 season-ending ankle injury threw a wrench in those plans. After a rocky start, Jimmy Garoppolo has settled back into his traditional spot as the team’s quarterback. By virtue of a reduced turnover rate, he’s having his most efficient season in San Francisco.
But Garoppolo is not the headliner for this team. The Niners have been to the NFC title game or beyond in two of the last three seasons. In each of those years, they’ve been defined by a smothering defense that gives up fewer yards than just about anyone in the league. This year’s edition, however, has been even better.
Because of that, San Francisco demands to be taken seriously despite its 7-4 record and recent playoff failures.
Through 11 games, the 49ers have only given up 173 points — fewest in the NFL. In their four-game win streak they’ve allowed only five touchdowns and given up an average of 243 yards per game. They haven’t given up a single second-half point in that span. Against a dropback of good San Francisco defenses, the 2022 unit is primed to be the best yet.
There are plenty of forces at play. Nick Bosa is climbing toward a potential defensive player of the year award with 5.5 sacks in his last five games and 10.5 on the season. Talanoa Hufanga has emerged as a Pro Bowl caliber safety with a penchant for big plays, including a forced fumble that helped extend his unit’s scoreless streak to more than 94 minutes.
Defense forces the fumble!
📺 : #NOvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/zjm7h8KaRg— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 27, 2022
Fred Warner continues to be an absolute goblin of a middle linebacker; his 3.5 percent missed tackle rate is a career low. Charvarius Ward has been every bit as good as San Francisco hoped he could be when it made him its big free agent acquisition. The perpetually underrated Tashaun Gipson continues to make plays and bring veteran stability at safety.
This has been powerful enough to make an offense with stars like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey feel like an afterthought. The Niners have always been dangerous due to their ability to bring pressure with a deep group of pass rushers. This winter they’ve got the secondary to back that up. In 2021 their 97.0 passer rating allowed was eighth-worst in the NFL. This season it’s down to 82.5 — seventh-best.
It’s no secret why this is so important. Garoppolo remains this team’s quarterback for at least two more months. While he’s capable of winning games, he’s also developed a worth reputation for baffling throws, blown reads and a general displeasure at the idea of throwing deep.
His postseason passer rating is 25 points lower than his regular season one (99.7 vs. 74.1). In Super Bowl 54 his stunning inability to turn to an open George Kittle with the game on the line cost the Bay Area a parade. In last year’s NFC title game he watched a 17-7 lead disintegrate while completing only three of his nine fourth quarter passes. This was all the evidence Shanahan and general manager John Lynch needed to deal away three first round picks for the chance to draft Lance in 2021.
Fortunately for that defense, there’s more insulation should Garoppolo falter again. For the fifth straight year San Francisco leads the league in yards after catch (7.0 per reception, an NFL-high since Pro Football Reference began recording that stat in 2018). Samuel and Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk return for another shot at the brass ring and now get to incorporate McCaffrey into that attack. McCaffrey, you may remember, scored touchdowns as a runner, receiver and passer in just his second game as a 49er.
This is all designed to reduce the reliance on a quarterback whose 6.8 air yards per pass is the fifth-lowest mark among qualified passers. Garoppolo has been significantly better in 2022 than he has been in years past. Since his Week 3 Orlovsky-ing out the back of the end zone in a 10-11 loss to the Denver Broncos, he’s been the league’s fourth best quarterback in terms of expected points add (EPA), an advanced stat provided by the NFL’s Next Gen Stats (and charted here by the wonderful RBSDM.com).
Garoppolo’s 1.3 percent interception rate is less than half his previous career low but his touchdown rate is scraping a career high. Did he really turn a corner at age 31 while staring down the threat of free agency for the first time in his career? Or is a crash coming, the way it typically has for a quarterback whose regular season record — a sterling 39-17! — doesn’t reflect the impact he has on the game.
There’s a perfect world in which Garoppolo continues to be a low-risk, high-reward quarterback, his offensive line continues to keep him upright — his 5.3 percent sack rate is the lowest of his career as a full time starter — and the San Francisco defense allows this team to cruise to a bunch of 31-14 and 38-10 wins. But history suggests that’s not going to happen.
That’s OK! This 49er defense refuses to suffer fools and has been absolutely torturing opposing quarterbacks en route to a truly dominant four-game winning streak. Shanahan’s teams have been insulated for a Garoppolo meltdown in the past, but none are as stacked as this one. That’s why, despite an underwhelming record, these Niners might just be the favorite to emerge from the NFC side of the playoff bracket.
And if Garoppolo can keep it up along the way, there may not be any question about San Francisco’s Super Bowl bonafides.
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