Through the end of the Drew Brees era, New Orleans Saints general manager Mickey Loomis had a certain philosophy when it came to his salary cap. His unofficial motto? “That’s a next year problem.”
New Orleans has been stuck in a loop of big contracts for veteran players and cap gymnastics to keep the Saints in compliance of the league’s spending limit. This has created a cycle of contract restructurings and void years that push big contract money into the future — a place where they’ll take up less room against an expanding salary cap.
There’s no better example than Taysom Hill’s four-year, $140 million contract. That made headlines for its ludicrosity, but at its heart it saved $7.5 million on the team’s 2020 salary cap while keeping a key player under contract by spreading his signing bonus into those future years. The deal itself was later configured into a four year, $40 million deal — either a lot for a hybrid tight end/quarterback/special teamer or a little.
This stuffed cap sheet meant New Orleans could sustain itself as long as it had a franchise quarterback and drafted well. So when Brees was still slinging darts and the Saints found guys like Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramczyk in the first round, life was good. But recent years have delivered Andy Dalton and Trevor Penning. New Orleans has found itself trapped in a cycle of mediocrity of its own making.
2024 doesn’t look like the year the Saints break free.
Derek Carr has to prove he’s better than an injury-marred Saints debut to push this team to the playoffs
Carr was supposed to be the fix; an underappreciated quarterback who toiled with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders but could thrive in a new setting. We never got to see that in 2023, because he got the tar beaten out of him.
He suffered a shoulder injury in Week 3 against the Green Bay Packers and was effectively week-to-week for the rest of the season. He also dealt with a concussion and bruised ribs but still started all 17 games and played efficient, if forgettable, football for a 9-8 team. His completion rate soared to 68.4 and his 97.7 passer rating was the third-highest of his career. With a potential playoff spot on the line, he torched the Atlanta Falcons for four touchdowns in a 48-17 win that ultimately didn’t matter thanks to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ NFC South-clinching victory on the same day.
That’s the blueprint head coach Dennis Allen would like to follow in 2024. Carr’s deep game worked wonders; he completed all four of his throws of 20-plus yards and was 6-8 for 146 of his 261 yards and three touchdowns on his throws that traveled at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That stands in contrast to the rest of his Saints tenure, where his average throw depth of 6.8 yards was his lowest mark since 2019.
Carr’s injuries likely played a role in that safer game plan, but he’s still got juice when it comes to field-stretching lobs. The question is whether he has the horses to pull such throws off.
Rashid Shaheed has been a quasi-revelation as a deep ball savant. Chris Olave is capable of winning any route he throws out. But the key could be second-year player A.T. Perry. Carr wanted him to be a downfield menace; his average target came more than 16 yards downfield. As a rookie, however, that only manifested in 12 catches (for 246 yards, but still).
A Perry rise could be key to the Saints’ playoff hopes. He averaged better than 18 yards per catch in his 2022 breakthrough season at Wake Forest. He’s had an up and down preseason thanks to an ankle injury, but could be the guy Carr needs to unlock the intermediate and deep game that roasted the Falcons last January.
And the Saints might need that, because the run game could be grim. New Orleans’ 1.4 yards after contact per rush was second-worst in the NFL ahead of only the woeful Buccaneers. Alvin Kamara’s -99 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) were fourth-worst among all tailbacks and now he’s 29 years old with nearly 2,000 NFL touches on his odometer.
Kendre Miller showed flashes of competence as a rookie but has gotten called out by his own head coach due to his struggles with injury. Carr could be stuck staring into crowded secondaries thanks to a ground game that convinces no one to stack the box.
The Saints’ defense is aging toward a breaking point
New Orleans fielded a top 10 scoring defense. They ranked fifth in terms of expected points added (EPA) allowed last fall. That unit should be the support network capable of creating wins even if Carr plays useful, but low impact football.
This doesn’t mean the Saints will play at this level again in 2024. Here are the ages of some of their most important starters:
- Nathan Shepherd: 30 years old (turns 31 in October)
- Tyrann Mathieu: 32
- Cameron Jordan: 35
- Demario Davis: 35
That’s concerning, but not necessarily fatal. Davis has only gotten better in his 30s, though cracks may be forming in his coverage abilities. Mathieu played at a borderline All-Pro level last season. Shepherd had the best season of his career in 2023.
But Jordan had his least productive season since a rookie 2011 and an age-related decline is coming at some point. The good news is the young guys in the secondary have been good enough to compensate for that. Marshon Lattimore remains awesome (74.7 passer rating allowed in 2023) even if injuries have limited him to 17 games the last two seasons. Alontae Taylor and Paulson Adebo have emerged as reliable starters with Pro Bowl capabilities. Kool-Aid McKinstry was a potential first round talent the team was able to pick up in Round 2 of this year’s draft.
That’s important, because the pass rush was unable to consistently threaten quarterbacks last fall. The Saints’ 18.7 percent pressure rate was fifth-worst in the NFL and their 34 sacks were tied for fourth-worst. Jordan’s age won’t help there, and the team’s cap situation meant the big offseason acquisition for the edge rush was Chase Young, who played a full season last year but only managed 7.5 sacks (and only two in nine games as a San Francisco 49er).
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Unless 2024’s draft class is a hit, things won’t get better for the Saints in the near future. They’re already an estimated $90 million over next year’s salary cap, though releasing Kamara would erase a sizable chunk of that burden, per Over the Cap. And, indeed, if first round tackle Taliese Fuaga and McKinstry both emerge as solid starters it will generate the savings needed for Loomis to dig his team out of its ongoing cap debt.
New Orleans has gotten mixed returns from its latest high profile picks, however, and another Penning or Payton Turner-type miss could keep this team stuck in a cycle of expensive veteran help rather than the cheap, young players who can build a more traditional foundation. This year’s Saints team looks a lot like the last few; good enough to compete for a playoff spot and keep the team from a top 10 draft pick. Bad enough that no one quite buys them as a true contender.
That’s the limbo New Orleans’ roster management has created. It’ll take a seismic shift, one way or another, to free the Saints.
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