The Dallas Mavericks are back in the NBA Finals for the third time in nearly 20 years and may have more on the horizon.
But before we discuss what’s to come next for this Dallas team, we’ve got to talk about the opportunity right in front of it. The franchise could win its second NBA championship this summer with four wins over the Boston Celtics over these next couple of weeks
It’ll be an uphill battle, though. The Celtics have been the best team in the NBA all season long. And, while the Mavericks have been incredible during this postseason run, overcoming the Celtics’ talent won’t be easy.
There’s a path to victory here, though. Let’s talk a bit about it.
Why the Mavericks will win
First: Dallas arguably has the best player in the series in Luka Doncic.
This is why so many people have faith in the Dallas Mavericks. It’s not that the Celtics aren’t the NBA’s best team or that there’s widespread disbelief in Boston. It’s just that Luka Doncic is that good. There’s an argument to be made that he should’ve been MVP this season.
Though the Mavericks didn’t beat the Celtics in the regular season this year, he still had his way with Boston, scoring 35 points through the two games while averaging 15 rebounds and 12 assists. I don’t know if we see those gaudy Luka numbers in this series, but if we do? That certainly bodes well for Dallas.
Second: Kristaps Porzingis might not be 100 percent healthy
Kristaps Porzingis’ health hasn’t mattered much this postseason. He’s been out since the end of April and Boston has still managed to dispatch their opponents easily.
The Celtics’ big man is back for this series. He says he’s healthy, but that slight hesitation in saying he’s no longer playing with pain raises antennas a bit.
Luka and Kyrie Irving are going to test that calf. We’ll see just how he’s feeling in these Finals.
Third: Luka and Kyrie Irving as a combination have been incredible in the playoffs
As far as duos go, Doncic and Irving have been at the top of the top so far in these playoffs. The 595 minutes they’ve played together in the postseason are the most any combination of players has played so far this season. Those two have a 9.1 net rating in those minutes together. That’s extremely good.
Finding ways to get those two playing in sync against Boston could tilt the series in Dallas’ way.
Why the Mavericks won’t win
First: The Celtics’ “others” are better than the Mavericks’
Dallas has the best player in this series. There’s certainly an argument to be made that they’ve got the best duo in the series, too, though Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are incredible.
But there’s no question that the rest of the Celtics’ supporting cast is much better than what Dallas offers. Boston has two guards on the NBA’s All-Defense team, a big man in Porzingis who could’ve been an All-Star if he had a healthier season, and a rotation filled with players who know their roles and play them well.
The Mavericks’ role players have stepped up well in these playoffs. Maybe they will again, but Boston has them beat.
Second: Boston’s defense has been impenetrable during these playoffs
The Celtics’ 108.7 defensive rating in these playoffs is the third-best in these playoffs so far and the second-best out of any team that has played at least 10 games in these playoffs behind Oklahoma City (104.5).
The Mavericks might have the best player in this series, but he’ll see many different matchups throughout this series. Boston is good enough to keep him in check.
Third: The Celtics have matchups to hunt offensively against Dallas
When you think about this series from a matchup standpoint, you’ve got to think about who is guarding who.
Where are you placing your weakest defenders against Boston? Who is Kyrie Irving going to guard? Where will Luka Doncic Play? Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford will have to play from the outside with Boston’s big shooters stretching the floor. Can they handle that?
The more I think about it, the fewer answers I come up with. Dallas could try a zone or two — that’s not beyond the realm of possibility for this team. But doing that against a team that fires off 40 3-pointers a game is dangerous.
Dallas will have a hard time finding the answers defensively in this one.