The Jacksonville Jaguars are cooking. Week 15’s overtime win against the Dallas Cowboys was the team’s third victory in its last four games. More importantly, it was the Jaguars’ best win of 2022 — a rally from a 27-10 third quarter deficit against a 10-3 team that saw Trevor Lawrence play like an absolute stud and his defense rise up when it mattered most.
With wins over the Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville has climbed into an unexpected spot. A team that was 2-6 and staring into the void of another lost season has reclaimed the potential shown in a 38-10 trouncing of the Los Angeles Chargers early in the season. On November 25, FiveThirtyEight pegged the club’s playoff chances at a robust two percent. Its odds of winning the AFC South? 0.8 percent.
With three weeks to play in the 2022 NFL season, those postseason and division title odds have risen to 44 and 43 percent, respectively. There’s reason to believe a team that got stomped like ripe grapes by the Detroit Lions two weeks ago could make an improbable run to the franchise’s first playoff bid since Blake Bortles and a dominant defense had the team one quarter from a spot in Super Bowl 52.
What’s changed? And why does an underdog bet like the AFC South Champion Jacksonville Jaguars feel like a heavy favorite?
It has to do with this team growing in 2022 — and a direct rival regressing heavily.