The end is near! There’s just one week left in the 2019 NFL season, meaning all of the shuffling at the top of the 2020 NFL Draft order will soon be coming to an end — barring trades. And while the Dolphins have slid up into the middle of the top-10, there’s still much left on the table for Miami.
Based on the 2019 Week 17 schedule, Miami could be picking anywhere between 2nd and 6th overall. Here’s the Dolphins’ path to the optimal NFL Draft order outcomes for Week 17 and what needs to happen along the way.
Note: For full transparency, the following series of events should be considered next to impossible. But it is mathematically on the table for the Dolphins.
Dolphins vs. Patriots
A narrow Miami loss would feel like a poetic way for this season to end — the Dolphins were thrashed in the first showing, 43-0. Miami’s odds here to win outright are long and while it would be nice to drop the Patriots in the playoff seeding, Miami losing to the Patriots could see the team jump as many as 3 spots in the NFL Draft order.
Steelers vs. Ravens
The Ravens will sit several starters with the AFC’s 1-seed locked in. The Steelers need a win and help to make the playoffs. But a Baltimore win freezes the Steelers out of the playoffs and ensures that the Dolphins have two top-20 selections.
Titans vs. Texans
The Texans have already clinched the division and Tennessee can clinch a playoff berth with a win. A Tennessee win also helps the odds of a higher Houston pick if/when Houston loses in the playoffs. Record is applied to all teams losing in the same round. The Dolphins will likely need to root for a Wild Card round loss to Buffalo to maximize the Texans’ pick.
Redskins vs. Cowboys
A Washington win would stun — but it would also position the Redskins back into a tie with the Dolphins in the NFL Draft order. And depending on how the remainder of the NFC schedule plays out in Week 17, Miami may end up with a tiebreaker. Here’s to the Cowboys quitting on Jason Garrett!
Giants vs. Eagles
A New York win would push the Giants to 5 wins on the season and bump them above the Dolphins despite a significantly worse strength of schedule. This is a long shot, as the Eagles still need to win in order to lock in their NFC East division title.
Packers vs. Lions
The Packers have won the NFC North thanks to their win over the Vikings on Monday Night Football in Week 16. A Detroit win here would move the Lions ahead of the Dolphins at 4-11-1. Perhaps the longest long-shot of the week.
Saints vs. Panthers
For Miami to finish ahead of Washington in the NFL Draft order, a Carolina win is necessary here as well in order to push the Redskins’ strength of schedule ahead of Miami’s.
Chargers vs. Chiefs
For Miami to finish ahead of Washington in the NFL Draft order, a Kansas City win is necessary here as well in order to push Miami’s strength of schedule below Washington’s.
If all of the following were to materialize, the Miami Dolphins would be positioned to own the following picks in the 1st-round of the 2020 NFL Draft:
- 2nd overall (Miami’s pick)
- 19th overall (Pittsburgh’s pick)
- To be determined (Houston’s pick)
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