Quarterback Tom Brady is about to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the New England Patriots have neither an established QB on the roster nor cap space to sign one. Still, ESPN’s Dianna Russini suggested that the Patriots have a plan.
We’re talking about Bill Belichick. Of course he has a plan, right? The Patriots coach seemed to make little effort to retain Brady heading into free agency. New England didn’t even negotiate with Brady, per NBC Sports Boston. If Belichick didn’t make a huge effort to retain Brady, then the Patriots’ mastermind must have been ready with a Plan B … right?
The situation looks dire. Once guard Joe Thuney signs his franchise tag, the Patriots will have roughly $5 million in cap space — maybe less. But, again, Belichick’s got this. Right? Here’s an educated guess at what his plans might be.
Option 1. Bill Belichick has enormous faith in Jarrett Stidham — or Cody Kessler
That’s the current composition of the Patriots’ depth chart. It’s Stidham, then Kessler. Of course, in an open competition, it’s possible Kessler, who has starting experience in Cleveland and Jacksonville (yikes!), could overtake Stidham, a 2019 fourth-round draft pick who was pegged as a project after a rough final year at Auburn.
There’s a case to be made for Kessler, whose completion percentage (64.2) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (8:5) stayed solid despite starting in two of football’s least advantageous situations. And there’s a case to be made for Stidham, who drew positive reviews in New England during his first season.
Option 2. The Patriots are eyeing a low-budget reclamation project at quarterback
Belichick and Josh McDaniels have won games with Matt Cassel and Jacoby Brissett. The two coaches turned Brian Hoyer into a desirable quarterback. Perhaps the Patriots think they can dust off a benchwarmer and make the most of a flailing career. There are a few who come to mind. Hoyer may be the odd man out in Indy, which just signed Philip Rivers. (Or maybe the Colts will give away Brissett?) Blake Bortles, who spent a year in L.A. under Sean McVay, might appeal to Belichick. 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens was serviceable in San Francisco while Jimmy Garoppolo went down with an injury. I’ve also always liked Josh Rosen as a high-upside option for New England.
These players’ contracts would require minor cap fudging, if at all.
Option 3. Belichick, cap wizard, is poised to make room for a big fish
The Patriots could have eyes for Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Nick Foles or Andy Dalton. Maybe Foles and Dalton aren’t your idea of a “big fish.” But their contracts are prohibitively high, considering the Patriots’ cap situation. The Patriots would have to trade for Newton, Foles or Dalton, all of whom are set to earn around $18 million, give or take a few million. Winston, meanwhile, seems vulnerable after failing to find a seat in this game of quarterback-musical-chairs. He may be forced into taking a pay cut (from the nearly $21 million he made last year) on a show-me deal, or one loaded with hard-to-reach incentives. Maybe the Patriots could make that work.
All of these options are practically impossible with the Patriots roster as it is now. Perhaps Belichick thinks he is getting $10 million in cap relief from Antonio Brown’s contract after he committed conduct detrimental to team, which could, in theory, void his guaranteed earnings. Perhaps Belichick intends to trade Thuney, who is set to make roughly $15 million on the franchise tag. Or perhaps Belichick is ready to restructure deals for the team’s biggest contracts to (somehow) free up a ton of cap space.
Option 4. The Patriots love someone in the draft
This is the final option, because Belichick is unlikely to assume that a first-year QB could step in and win the job. He’s helped develop QBs like Cassel, Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo, but not by throwing them right into the NFL as rookies. The Patriots also pick at 23rd overall, a spot where Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love and Justin Herbert are likely to be gone. That leaves: Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm, among others. New England would probably have to trade up to get a surefire upgrade over Kessler and Stidham.
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