There’s no place to go but up for the Carolina Panthers. 2024, however, will be the start of a slow uphill trudge rather than a leap forward.
The Panthers were unwatchable last fall as the hope and luster of a high prolife rebuild disintegrated under the harsh glare of incompetence. Bryce Young fizzled while CJ Stroud, the quarterback selected directly after him in the 2023 NFL Draft, shined. No team in the league gained fewer yards. Carolina’s two wins came in games where it scored a combined 24 points.
Frank Reich, the respected head coach who’d been drummed out of Indianapolis for being too good in a tanking year (thus necessitating the hiring of Jeff Saturday), lasted 11 games on the sideline. Brian Burns, once the rumored target of trade talks that would have sent the Panthers two first round picks in 2022, backslid slightly in a lost season and was eventually dealt for second- and fifth-round selections. Frankie Luvu, who developed into a trustworthy, versatile do-whatever linebacker, joined the Washington Commanders in free agency.
In the middle of all this, team owner David Tepper presided over a low-rent Game of Thrones between his coaching staff and executive team. He winged a drink at fans after a road loss. He proved every stereotype about the social skills of Carnegie Mellon graduates right with a weird, hello-fellow-human interaction with a restaurant worker whose sign had the nerve to playfully criticize Tepper’s decision making.
Despite sinking to the bottom of the standings and rising to the top of the NFL’s clown shoe rankings, there wasn’t even a high value first round pick on which to fall back. The Chicago Bears, still profiting from the deal that put Young in Carolina blue, used the first overall pick to draft Caleb Williams, the best-received quarterback prospect since Trevor Lawrence.
This is all a tremendous amount of haze that makes it difficult to see a silver lining. It’s there, I promise.
It all begins with Young, whose fortunes behind center will dictate whether we see the Panthers back in the postseason for the first time since 2017 or if the team is sunk in another arduous rebuild. Admittedly, there wasn’t much to like about his 2023.
Questions about his size manifested in throws downfield and over the middle. His 11 completed deep balls (out of 46!) tied for 25th-most in the NFL. That wouldn’t seem so bad until you realize the guys tied with him include Kirk Cousins (eight starts in 2023) and Tyrod Taylor (five). That’s one fewer deep ball than Zach Wilson who is, notably, Zach Wilson.
From Week 6 onward, Young only had 18 completions that came between the tackles and traveled at least 10 yards downfield. Defenses knew they could shut down his offense over the middle and forced Carolina’s passing game to operate horizontally rather than vertically. The Panthers’ 4.7 net yards per attempt was worst in the NFL, as was Young’s 21.5 percent bad throw rate (by a wide margin).
His -0.139 adjusted expected points added (EPA) per dropback was second-worst among starters to only Wilson. For every 22 passing plays the Panthers called, he made his team roughly a field goal worse than an average quarterback.
None of this screams “FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK” or even “USEFUL QUARTERBACK” but there were mitigating factors at play. Young’s top target, by a wide margin, was a 33-year-old Adam Thielen. The star running back acquired to take heat from his shoulders, Miles Sanders, averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. The offensive line in front of him ranked 25th among all NFL units at midseason (per The 33rd Team) and only got worse from there.
These Panthers have placed a priority on boosting Young with a rising tide. That starts with the run game between the tackles. Robert Hunt was a vital piece of the Miami Dolphins’ top ranked rushing crew. Damien Lewis was a four-year starter clearing a path for the Seattle Seahawks’ good and occasionally great ground attack. They both came to Charlotte this offseason via free agent deals that carried more than $70 million in guaranteed money.
That wouldn’t be enough if Miles Sanders (-54 rushing yards over expected in 2023) continued to stink. So the Panthers did some wheeling and dealing to make Texas stud Jonathon Brooks the first tailback selected at this year’s draft.
Was the second round too high for a running back in a deep class with few sure thing standouts? Possibly! But Brooks is an inexpensive platoon addition who can mitigate what’s becoming a desperate situation for the Carolina offense. His availability paved the way to give less glorious but badly needed veterans like Lewis and Hunt money instead of paying big for a runner for the second straight offseason.
They’ll also help keep Young upright. The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin pegs the Panthers’ blocking as a top five pass protection machine for the upcoming season.
Quick thread on offensive line starters leading up to draft as I wait for code to run What if we tried to guess offensive line strength given the 5 starters listed on Ourlads and their past performance in pass protection (as measured by grade)? This is what it might look like pic.twitter.com/drVEjPMK7r
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) April 8, 2024
On top of that, there are run-after-catch wizards who can prop Young up the way the San Francisco 49ers have used their playmakers to turn Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy into efficiency machines. Trading for Diontae Johnson, coming off his most effective season as a pro (8.2 yards per target, a 52.9 percent success rate when targeted) cost only uneven veteran cornerback Donte Jackson and a swap of late round picks.
Dealing into the first round allowed the team to land Xavier Legette, whose Deebo Samuel comparisons boil right down to the same alma mater. Ja’Tavion Sanders was ranked as high as second among 2024’s rookie tight end crop and the Panthers were able to snag him in the fourth round. Pair them with a couple of young lottery tickets like Jonathan Mingo and Terrace Marshall Jr. and the vision for this team begins to round into focus.
Young’s average pass distance will likely decrease in 2024. His average completion distance will likely increase once the yards-after-catch savants in his lineup turn up. The improvements may be modest, but they’ll be vital. Especially because the defense may be staring at a step backward.
The Panthers’ defense was a problem last year. It ranked fourth in total yards allowed but only three teams in the NFL gave up more points. No one forced fewer turnovers than Carolina’s 11. The team’s 17.2 percent pressure rate ranked 30th among all defenses. Its 27 sacks were dead last.
That team won’t return two of its best players now that Burns and Luvu are gone. The only defensive player the team drafted in the first 150 picks was third round linebacker Trevin Wallace. The marquee free agent signings on that side of the ball were Jordan Fuller, Josey Jewell, DJ Wonnum and a 31-year-old Jadeveon Clowney.
Even if that group punches above its weight class, there’s going to be a learning curve for a team replacing seven starters from last year’s opening week. The small miracles of 2023 — ranking sixth in yards allowed per play or 15th in third down percentage — may evaporate.
That leaves the burden of improvement on an offense that’s undeniably in better shape than it was last season. It puts a massive weight on the shoulders of a quarterback who cost the Panthers two No. 1 overall picks, and more, to select. But there’s reason to believe things will get better in 2024. Even if better doesn’t necessarily mean good.