New England Patriots: Tom Brady under pressure
Yes, New England’s pass defense has regressed to a debilitating degree over the last couple weeks, and that’s a real problem against the Titans, who have one of the NFL’s most dynamic passing offenses since Ryan Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota in Week 7. But let’s assume, based on overwhelming history, that Bill Belichick will figure something out there. What Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels haven’t been able to figure out all season is how to create a similarly effective passing game around Tom Brady.
The problem is two-fold. On the back half of the passing game, there’s a beleaguered offensive line and Brady’s declining pocket movement skills. Brady also has to deal with a group of receivers (Julian Edelman excepted) who struggle mightily to create separation, which means there are far too many instances in which Brady is waiting for someone to come open, and it doesn’t happen before a pass-rusher ruins the moment.
Thus, Brady’s numbers against pressure and the blitz this season. Overall against pressure, Brady has the NFL’s worst completion rate (36.0%) and the second-worst passer rating (51.8, ahead of only Jameis Winston). Against the blitz, Brady has completed just 50.8% of his passes, and while he does have eight touchdown passes to just two interceptions against the blitz, he’s got five touchdown passes to three interceptions under pressure. So, if you blitz Brady and you don’t get to him, it’s likely that you’re leaving openings he can exploit. But when enemy defenses can bracket Edelman and not have to worry much about anyone else, things become easier for those defenses — and that’s been the case all season.
The Titans, New England’s wild-card opponent, blitzed on just 24.8% of their defensive plays in the regular season, and they still managed 43 sacks and 189 total pressures. Both numbers rank in the middle of the pack, but against New England’s offense, pretty good could be more than good enough.