If you want to get a fiery discussion going in a room full of football analytics people, just drop this question-bomb:
“Do running backs matter?”
Then step back, and watch the fur fly. Actually, don’t watch the fur fly, as there seems to be a nearly universal agreement among the aforementioned intelligentsia that running backs are far more fungible than in previous eras, and that without much exception, you’re able to get similar production out of an undrafted back at league-minimum prices as you are out of that first-round pick you just rewarded with an enormous contract extension.
Of course, there are caveats to this, as true as it may be in a general sense. A recent Pro Football Focus study indicated how off-base the Rams and Cardinals were, respectively, in giving extensions to Todd Gurley and David Johnson, respectively. Johnson was eventually picked from Arizona’s roster when the Cardinals took advantage of the Texans’ inexplicable need to rid themselves of DeAndre Hopkins, and the Rams released Gurley in March with a post-June 1 designation to try and ease the cap hit born from the four-year, $57.5 million extension Gurley was given in 2018. Both Johnson and Gurley found themselves severely limited due to injuries in recent times, running backs in general have short shelf lives, and the Johnson and Gurley deals are indeed excellent examples of how you don’t want to throw good money after bad.
As far as the ability of any Joe Shlabotnik to come in and replicate the production of an Ezekiel Elliott or Derrick Henry, it’s important to remember that while running backs may not matter as much as they used to, running games are still vital parts of most successful offenses. The 49ers proved this in 2019 as they took Raheem Mostert, a guy who had been cut by six different teams before San Francisco picked him up, all the way to the Super Bowl. The 49ers were one of two teams in 2019 to run the ball more than they passed it — the Ravens were the other — and it’s no coincidence that San Francisco and Baltimore have two of the NFL’s most complex and dynamic run games in the league. If you think Raheem Mostert was going to get that kind of traction with the Jaguars, think again.
So, as it is with any other position in the league, running back success is predicated on the positive combination of player and scheme. Here are the 11 best “meaningless” backs in the NFL today.