Changes to kickoff rules in the NFL made recovering an onside kick so unlikely that it’s almost not worth even attempting anymore. From 2017 to 2018, the onside kick recovery rate plunged from 21 percent to just six percent, and over the course of the 2019 season, there were a total of just eight successfully recovered onside kicks on 56 attempts.
Prior to the 2019 NFL season, the Denver Broncos proposed that the NFL borrow a rule from the now-defunct Alliance of American Football, a league that had eliminated kickoffs entirely. In the AAF, in certain situations, scoring teams had the option to run a 4th-and-12 play from their own 28-yard line to try and keep possession of the ball.
The NFL will test out a similar rule in Sunday’s 2020 NFL Pro Bowl, but is removing the AAF’s restriction on when scoring teams can attempt the new do-or-die play to keep possession. In the Pro Bowl, which has no regular kickoffs, scoring teams can either give the ball to their opponents as normal, or elect to run a 4th-and-15 play from their own 25-yard line. If the team converts a first down, they retain possession. If not, the defending team takes over just outside of the red zone.
Here's a look at the two rule changes we'll be testing at #ProBowl 2020: https://t.co/agnWbdi5bA pic.twitter.com/lS6jAqEeL8
— NFL Officiating (@NFLOfficiating) January 21, 2020
We’re hoping that either the AFC or NFC teams go for a 4th-and-15 just to see this rule in action, as the possibilities are tantalizing to think about.
Take the AFC divisional round game between the Titans and Ravens, for example. Baltimore scored a touchdown with 11 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter, but still trailed 28-12 and faced a Derrick Henry-led offense that was adept at burning the clock. Instead of kicking the ball away, John Harbaugh could have put the ball in the hands of the presumptive 2019 MVP and rolled the dice on scoring back-to-back touchdowns – and then go for it again. In theory, a trailing team’s offense could be on the field for the entire fourth quarter, as long as they can convert (unlikely) first downs.
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