The Packers offense has run through every defense put in front of it this season. Well, almost every defense. Green Bay has scored at least 22 points in all but one game during the 2020 season, a Week 6 loss against the team that stands between it and a trip to the Super Bowl — Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers may have racked up 38 points in the game, but the performance was all about the defense. It scored on a pick-6 of Aaron Rodgers and set up another short field with an interception. A lot was made of Rodgers’ crappy performance, but this was a total team failure. The Packers struggled to pass, but the run game was even more useless. Green Bay averaged -0.21 EPA per run and only 30% of those plays were successful.
Rodgers will almost certainly be better in the NFC Championship on Sunday, but I don’t know if we can say the same about the run game unless we see some major adjustments from Packers coach Matt LaFleur, whose outside zone attack was completely shut down by the Bucs’ terrifying front. I say that because this seems to be a systematic problem. LaFleur isn’t the first coach from the Shanahan/Kubiak coaching tree to run into a brick wall against Todd Bowles’ defense in Tampa. Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers couldn’t run against the Bucs last season (-0.24 EPA/play) and Sean McVay’s Rams have struggled to run the ball against the Bucs two years in a row (-0.36 EPA/play over two games).
I didn’t go back and watch the film from those other games, but the root cause of the Packers’ issues in Week 6 wasn’t hard to find: They just couldn’t block Lavonte David or Devin White. The two Bucs linebackers combined for 18 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss.
From the very first offensive snap for Green Bay, it was apparent that the sideline-to-sideline speed of David and White was going to be a problem for the Packers offensive line.
Both linebackers are kept clean on the play. Because of the alignment of the defense, the backside guard, who ran a 5.3-second 40, is left in a footrace with White, who ran a 4.4. David was kept clean thanks to William Gholston (92) preventing David Bakhtiari (69) from climbing to the second level.
Packers blockers trying and failing to get to White was a common theme throughout the game.
Blocking David in space proved to be just as difficult.
You’d think those fast-flowing linebackers would be victimized in the play-action boot game the Packers leaned on this season, but Green Bay never really got into that during the game. Per Sports Info Solutions, they ran only one boot pass and the Bucs did a good job of defending it.
Keep an eye on White there. He doesn’t bite too hard on the play-action fake after seeing the tight end slice across the backfield and drops back into the throwing lane for the intermediate crosser. Now watch this: The Packers run that same slicing action by the tight end and look at White’s reaction…
One adjustment LaFleur can make is throwing that eye candy out there a bit more than he did in the Week 6 game. Get White thinking more and he won’t be so fast to trigger on those run plays.
LaFleur did find some success running the ball when the Packers lined up in what’s called a “nub” formation. That’s any formation where a tight end attached to the offensive line is the only eligible receiver to one side.
With David and White bumped over to the three-receiver side, the offensive line had better angles for blocking them, keeping them from tracking down the running back from the backside.
The Packers haven’t been big on pulling guards and running counter this season but running those plays a bit more and dialing back on the outside zone stuff might be a good way to slow down the Bucs linebackers.
They had some success when running more north-south plays…
Here’s one where the Packers pitch it to the running back, getting David and White to think it’s another outside zone play, but the running back’s path takes him inside and the two linebackers end up out of position…
Green Bay could not have expected more from LaFleur over his first two seasons. He’s won 26 games and finds himself in the NFC Championship Game for a second consecutive year. He’s also gotten Rodgers back to playing like an MVP candidate while getting him to buy into this system. But it’s still fair to wonder if LaFleur is going to be a coach who can adapt his offensive scheme as defenses adjust. Sunday’s game will give him a chance to prove that he is that guy.