The Miami Dolphins were down to their third string quarterback in Week 5. This was not the reason they lost to the New York Jets.
Instead, Miami lost its second straight game because it found a way to give up 40 points to the Jets on an afternoon where Zach Wilson passed for zero touchdowns. In the process, the Dolphins vacated so much of the goodwill they’d built in a 3-0 start that included wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.
While rookie seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson struggled in his first NFL action — 19-33, 166 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception — the bigger takeaway from the Jets’ 40-17 frogstomping was that Miami’s defense, ranked 28th in DVOA even before disintegrating like used tissues during cedar season, is a genuine, very bad, no-good problem.
Look at the talent. Look at the effort.
LET'S GO @BreeceH!!#MIAvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/z2wVQ2wIyK
— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 9, 2022
Things weren’t as grim as the final score suggests, even if they certainly weren’t good. The Dolphins only gave up 322 total yards Sunday, which is their second-lowest total of 2022. They kept Wilson out of the end zone through the air. The Jets’ final two touchdown drives covered 35 total yards thanks to short fields created by a fumble and a turnover on downs.
Still, this is troubling.
Miami gave up 230 total yards to the Jets’ top two running backs as New York head coach Robert Saleh realized he had no need to test the Dolphins’ high profile secondary. Zach Wilson only threw eight passes more than 10 yards downfield. His offense called 23 passing plays and 33 running ones, even though this was a 19-17 game early in the fourth quarter.
Why did all those runs work? A Jets team that ranked 20th in third down conversion rate converted on five of 11 attempts thanks to poor coverage and sloppy tackling.
You can’t even make the argument Thompson’s inability to guide the offense left the Dolphins’ defense gassed. Even though the Jets ran the ball 59 percent of the time they had possession for fewer than 31 minutes in Week 5. While turnovers gave New York short fields throughout the fourth quarter, the Jets still sustained three drives of 50-plus yards in the first half alone.
What’s more is that this is bad in a whole new way for Miami. The Dolphins ranked 31st in passing defense but fourth in rush defense in terms of total DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The stage was set for a strong Wilson performance. Instead, it was Hall who put on a show against a unit that had held the potent rushing attacks of the New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals to fewer than 80 net rushing yards.
That’s concerning! We’d seen the Bengals and, for three quarters, Ravens devise blueprints to beat the Dolphins. The Jets deviated from those to come up with their own. While the quarterback situation played a role — Teddy Bridgewater attempted one pass before leaving the game — it suggests teams are going to find ways to lock Miami into shootout situations it can’t consistently win.
There’s a route back from this. Getting Tua Tagovailoa or even Bridgewater back is an immediate boost. There’s a very “Matt Patricia Patriots” quality to the bend-don’t-bend profile of a defense that ranked 28th in yards allowed through four weeks but 16th in points given up. And we saw last year’s Cincinnati Bengals give up 34 points and 500-plus yards in a loss to the Jets that failed to derail their journey to Super Bowl 56.
In Week 4, the Dolphins were beat by a passing offense that ranked 20th in overall efficiency in 2022. In Week 5 they were beat by a run game that ranked 21st. This isn’t a case of Miami getting outplayed by better teams; it’s a function of underwhelming units rising up to have their best games of the season against them.
If that happens once, it’s an outlier. It’s happened in back to back weeks to the Dolphins, which makes it either a coincidence or the beginning of a trend. Head coach Mike McDaniel has to hope its the former if he’s going to regain his spot at the top of the AFC East.
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