The New York Jets’ hot start can’t last unless Zach Wilson can get out of his own way

The Jets keep winning games while getting next to nothing from their passing offense. How long can that last?

The New York Jets are 5-2 after beating the Denver Broncos, 16-9, in Week 7. This would be surprising enough on its own.

But the Jets have done this despite one of the least impactful passing offenses in the NFL. That makes their record borderline stunning.

Zach Wilson is 4-0 as a starter in 2022. He’s thrown for 692 total yards in those games, or 61 fewer than Josh Allen had in his last two games. On Sunday he handled the lost-at-sea Broncos and Russell Wilson replacement Brett Rypien by executing the kind of passing game you’d normally associate with an overwhelmed backup quarterback. Behold; the passing chart of a winning quarterback whose longest completion traveled eight yards downfield.

via RBSDM.com

It’s clear the Jets can win with a passing offense better suited to Iowa football than the AFC East. In order for this 5-2 start to be more than a fun story to start the season, New York is going to need more.

Grinding out the likes of the Packers, Steelers, backup-led Dolphins and Broncos is one thing. Doing the same in upcoming games against the Patriots, Bills and Vikings, especially if Breece Hall’s knee injury is as serious as the Jets believe, will be another thing entirely.

That’s where head coach Robert Saleh will need Wilson to be so much more than he’s shown in 2022. The second-year quarterback’s approach to the position can be occasionally described as “cartoon character slipping on marbles.” There are moments where he’ll string together plays with the awareness more befitting the Wet Bandits of the Home Alone film franchise than a quarterback so highly regarded he was drafted second overall.

This by itself would be an impeachable offense, but Wilson also provides his own counterargument to these moments with the grace and athleticism he showcased once upon a time at BYU.

That’s the kind of high-level move few NFL quarterbacks can pull off. It’s also the reason why Wilson is happy to run in the opposite direction of success in the hope a sliver of opportunity could present itself somewhere down the line.

We haven’t really seen that manifest itself in the deep balls that made him a special talent in college and littered one of the best pro day throwing sessions in recent memory. Wilson has only completed two passes at least 20 yards downfield in his four games this fall. He tried three against the Broncos’ punishing secondary and, hoooo buddy, it didn’t look great.

In his last two games, Wilson has attempted only nine passes that traveled at least 10 yards downfield. He only completed one of them, and that was because Corey Davis was wide open (and Wilson still underthrew him).

New York has papered over this with big rushing performances. Wilson was buttressed with 135 rushing yards vs. the Dolphins, 179 vs. the Packers and 155 vs. the Broncos. Hall, the electric rookie, was responsible for 285 of those in fewer than 10 quarters, but now it appears he’s out for the foreseeable future. Michael Carter will take over, but he’s averaged only 3.5 yards per carry to Hall’s 5.9 this season.

That’s going to put more pressure on a young quarterback. So will a steady ramp up of opposing offenses. The Jets’ four-game winning streak has been the result of dominant defensive performances that have allowed only 56 points in that stretch. But those games came against the Dolphins’ backup quarterbacks, the disheveled mess Aaron Rodgers is trying desperately to weave into a unit, and the 24th and 27th-best offenses in the league, per DVOA.

via Ben Baldwin/RBSDM.com

Above average offenses like the Bills, Jaguars, Vikings, Patriots and a healthy Dolphins team linger. Just getting to 16 points won’t save the Jets there.

This isn’t to say New York can’t win those games or get to the playoffs. They just can’t do it with Wilson scrambling into danger and defaulting to three-yard checkdowns rather than taking acceptable risks downfield. We know he’s capable of becoming a flamethrower because it was the thing he did best in college.

Now he and the Jets coaching staff need to find a way to apply it to the NFL. Davis is currently the team’s top deep threat — his average target is 15.2 yards downfield — but he’s dealing with a balky knee after Week 7. That’s going to open up some doors for other players to build a rapport with Wilson and unlock this team’s downfield offense.

Elijah Moore’s average target is 14 yards downfield. Could working him back into the offense and making him a big play threat more consistently smooth things over following his (denied) trade request? Garrett Wilson averaged 15.8 yards per catch his last two years at Ohio State and can step up after just 59 receiving yards in his last three games. Denzel Mims has legitimate burner speed and, if nothing else, can put together a little game film for whenever the Jets decided to trade him.

This all makes Wilson’s deep hesitancy more frustrating. He’s got guys who can cook downfield, but he’s thoroughly uninterested in them. His 2.25 deep balls per game tracks closer to late stage Drew Brees or Alex Smith than an exciting, emerging young passer.

Unlocking that in 2022 will be the difference between a Jets playoff appearance and a possible Robert Saleh Coach of the Year award and a 12th straight year of skipping the postseason. The Jets have all the pieces in place to make a playoff run but their quarterback. The guy they’re relying on has the arm talent to lift them to a new level. Now it’s up to Saleh and his wideouts and give him the environment he needs to realize that potential and push New York to … well, maybe not greatness this winter, but possibly pretty-good-ness.

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