The arrival of the 12-team College Football Playoff in 2024 will create a new era for the sport in a year filled with changes and transitions.
In 2024, USC and UCLA will be in the Big Ten Conference. Texas and Oklahoma will be in the SEC. So much about the sport will change, and the playoff’s expanded field will be at the heart of everything.
Though the 2024 season is not yet upon us, it feels closer than ever before because the Big Ten and SEC have unveiled their new-look 2024 schedules with 16-team memberships. It will take some time for college football fans and analysts to get used to the new landscape, so it’s worth taking a little time this summer — before the buildup to the 2023 season becomes especially intense — to map out the 2024 reality of college football, particularly within the new framework of the expanded playoff.
There’s one basic thing we have to emphasize about the 2024 playoff: Teams with 10-2 records will be the primary case studies and discussion points for the playoff’s at-large bids.
If Alabama goes 11-1, it’s in the playoff. Zero debate, zero discussion. Same for Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State.
Same for USC.
We don’t have to spend any time wondering if 11-1 blue-blood programs will get in.
The real debates will be for the 10-2 teams. That’s where we will get fierce battleground arguments for each team’s resume in a two or three-way comparison.
We might have an occasional situation in which a 9-3 team has a case, but that 9-3 team will need several high-end wins, not just one, to have any real shot. For the most part, the playoff’s most intense discussions will focus on 10-2 teams. The ones with tougher schedules and better wins will have a much easier time getting in. Teams which go 10-2 by beating a bunch of cupcakes and losing to the two best opponents on their schedule will sweat it out when the playoff teams are selected.
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