The Monday NFL Take Dump: Rams are legit but Baker is not, and other Week 2 observations

The early returns are clear: Cam Newton > Tom Brady.

Preseason is officially canceled. Forever. We don’t need it, and the first two weeks of the 2020 NFL season prove it.

The level of play over the first 31 games of the season has been superb and I attribute most of that to the exceptional quarterback play we’ve seen thus far. Lamar Jackson has taken his game to another level, Russell Wilson may never throw another incompletion again and Patrick Mahomes is still making the ridiculous look normal.

It has helped that some of the quarterbacks we left for dead have gotten off to fast starts. Aaron Rodgers looks like Aaron Rodgers again. Cam Newton is playing at a high level. Jared Goff seems to have regained his 2018 form. Tom Brady might be a little washed but his supporting cast is so good that it probably doesn’t matter.

If the quarterback play is good, the football will also be good. That’s not a very hot take, I know. So maybe I’m letting you down. You didn’t come here to read reasonable estimations or measured ruminations. This is the Monday Take Dump — we’re still workshopping the title — where no take is too hot and all opinions are subject to change upon further review. Here are my five spiciest takes after a long day of watching football…

The Rams are Super Bowl contenders again

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve seen enough. Small sample sizes be damned, the Rams are back. Like 2018 back. Somehow, despite not making any additions to the offensive line during the offseason, the offensive line is back to playing at a high level — which we covered in this space last week — and the trickle-down effect has been obvious through two games.

The running game is back to pre-2019 levels, ranking third in EPA per play and 10th in success rate, and that’s allowed Jared Goff to avoid obvious passing situations, which require him to actually read the field like a real quarterback. Against the Eagles, Goff dropped back to pass 32 times. Only 11 of those came on obvious pass downs (2nd-and-7+ and 3rd-and-5+), and his success rate on those plays was only 27.2%, according to data from RBSDM.com.

With the Rams staying ahead of the chains, McVay could dial up a ton of play-action. And I mean a ton of it. Goff used play-action on 53.6% of his dropbacks; and, honestly, it felt like more watching the game. McVay was really in his play-calling bag on Sunday. The reverses, the screen passes, the sequenced play-calling … he could do no wrong.

McVay even called a zone read for Goff at one point. That may have been the most disrespectful call of the week.

As impressive as the offense has been, the defense has been just as good. I was skeptical when McVay replaced Wade Phillips with a first-time NFL play-caller who was working at John Carroll University just a few years ago, but Brandon Staley has been impressive in the early going. Staley coached under Vic Fangio the last few seasons, and you could really see that influence on the Los Angeles defense. The Rams are playing a lot of two-high coverages that have helped them prevent big passing plays — they’ve given up only four plays of 20 or more yards — and to better defend crossing routes, which have become such an integral piece of every team’s offense.

The complex pattern matching coverages seemed to be giving Carson Wentz problems on Sunday. There was a lot of hesitation from the Eagles quarterback, and when he did push the ball downfield, it was often into coverage or in a spot that put his receiver in harm’s way. Sometimes both…

Now, these Rams don’t have the dominant front seven the Fangio Bears teams had, so I don’t think we’ll see the same down-to-down dominance we saw out of those Chicago teams. But if McVay’s offense continues to roll — and I think it will — Staley’s defense won’t have to be great in order for this team to be a contender in the NFC.

Thursday night was a good sign for the 2020 Browns offense, but not necessarily a good sign for Baker Mayfield’s long-term development

AP Photo/David Richard

Baker Mayfield needed a good performance on Thursday night, and he came through. Kevin Stefanski calling more play-action certainly helped, but Mayfield was still required to make some high-level throws to cash in on the opportunities provided by the play-calling.

Mayfield’s stat line was impressive. He averaged 10.3 yards-per-attempt and 0.53 EPA per dropback. His Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) of 13.1% is the sixth-best of the season so far. It was, by every objective measure, a good game and one that was sorely needed.

But … I don’t know if it really means anything going forward. The Bengals defense is one of the worst in the league, and some of Mayfield’s issues — hesitancy in the pocket, staring down receivers, not seeing the field well, etc. — were still present in the film.

Mayfield appeared to be more decisive but that was really on those play-action calls. He only had five non-play-action passes were he released the ball at 2.5 seconds or less. One was a designed pick play with no real read. Another was a play where Mayfield hesitated. That leaves three plays where he dropped back, hit the last step of his drop and the ball came out in rhythm. That’s not good enough.

Even some of his completions looked a bit shaky, with Mayfield needlessly losing composure for a bit before ultimately finding an outlet.

https://streamable.com/kfze0u

There’s no need for hesitation on a play like this, where his first two reads come open.

https://streamable.com/pyctie

Yet there he is pump-faking and getting the ball to Jarvis Landry a little late.

Staring down receivers remains a problem for Mayfield, which explains all the interceptions. Here’s a completion to Landry, but Mayfield is staring it down all the way as you can see from the end zone angle.

https://streamable.com/lp3be8

The undisciplined eyes plus a lack of anticipation might be punished by a better team.

Mayfield didn’t escape the game without throwing an interception, unfortunately. This play design doesn’t do him any favors — there’s no route occupying the backside corner and preventing him from undercutting the route — but the third-year pro has to see the field better and know where potentially dangerous defenders might be.

https://streamable.com/4ujtly

Failing to track roaming zone defenders has been a common theme on Mayfield’s interceptions throughout his career. We saw another example last week in Baltimore when Calais Campbell undercut a slant route and tipped the ball to a teammate for an easy pick.

Conditions were ideal for Mayfield on Thursday night. He was pressured only three times, per Next Gen Stats, and that was with the Bengals blitzing on 57% of his dropbacks, meaning Cincinnati was down a man or two in pass coverage. The fact that Mayfield played well isn’t a sign that he’s ready to turn the clock back to 2018; it’s a sign that he’s not a completely lost cause and this offense still has a chance to be pretty good.

Anthony Lynn cost the Chargers a 2-0 start and win over the Chiefs

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

A free tip to all NFL coaches out there: If you have a choice to either go for it on 4th-and-1 or give the ball to Patrick Mahomes in a situation where he only needs a field goal to win, you keep your offense on the field every single time. Here’s why: Gaining a yard on the Chiefs defense is easier than stopping them from scoring

This isn’t even a take. It’s backed by the #Analytics. Since Mahomes took over as the full-time starter in Kansas City, the Chiefs have scored on 51.3% of their drives., per Pro-Football-Reference’s Play Index. Over that same time, the defense has given up a first down on third- or fourth-and-one 59.3% of the time.

ESPN’s win probability model says the decision could have gone either way…

But Seth Walder added that the model doesn’t not consider “the advantage the Chiefs’ offense holds over the Chargers’ defense.” In other words, it doesn’t account for the fact that Patrick Mahomes was on the other sideline. Or that Andy Reid, who wasn’t afraid to go for it on fourth down in overtime, was calling the plays.

Anthony Lynn talks about being a physical, hard-nosed football team but doesn’t think he can get a yard against a team that doesn’t seem to care about run defense? We all knew how that game was ending once Lynn sent the punt team out there.

Speaking of bad decisions by Lynn…

I’m hoping this is a case where Lynn didn’t want to announce that Taylor had lost his job — rookie QB Justin Herbert played well, and is the future anyway — while he was in the hospital and he’s just waiting to tell him before he tells the media. But, there’s really no reason to not be starting Herbert, especially after that performance.

The Cardinals aren’t giving Isaiah Simmons a chance

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

I covered how rough the No. 8 overall pick’s NFL debut was last week. Simmons was so bad, the Cardinals benched him after just two series. He ended up playing only 18 defensive snaps in Week 1 and he saw even less of the field in Week 2, logging only five snaps.

Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said he knew there’d be a steep learning curve for Simmons, who never really got to learn one position while at Clemson, but the lack of playing time has to be a concern for fans in Arizona. Here’s a list of linebackers drafted in the first round since 2011 who played less than 40% of their team’s defensive snaps in the rookie seasons:

  1. Marcus Smith, Eagles
  2. Ryan Shazier, Steelers

Shazier started every game he was healthy for and Smith was one of the biggest busts of the past decade. The point is, there’s really no such thing as a project linebacker, so Simmons not being able to crack the starting lineup for a team with an underwhelming group of linebackers is a bad sign.

The Cardinals are a team capable of competing for a playoff spot, so it makes sense to play the guys who give you the best shot at winning, but I don’t see how Simmons gets better without those live reps. By not playing him, it just feels like Arizona is giving him no shot to succeed.

My unsolicited advice: Let the rookie take his lump, try to protect him through scheme and assignment, and hope that playing time accelerates his development.

The Patriots QB is better than the Buccaneers QB … and one of them is a lot cheaper

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Ok, so it’s early, but so far, Cam Newton has outplayed Tom Brady despite having almost no talent around him in New England. Let’s compare the numbers…

Overall EPA
Pats: 0.19 per play / Bucs: 0.02 per play
Overall Success rate
Pats: 61.9% / Bucs: 44.6%

Passing EPA
Cam: 0.29 per play / Tom: 0.09 per play
Passing Success rate
Cam: 60.9% / Tom: 45.1%
Completion Percentage Over Expectation
Cam: +2.2% / Tom: -2.8%
ESPN’s QBR
Cam: 71.8 / Tom: 47.8

Cap hit
Cam: $1.1 million / Tom: $25 million

Newton has also been the focal point of the league’s most efficient rushing attack. The Patriots are averaging 0.32 EPA per rush with a success rate of 62.5%. Both numbers would eclipse what the Ravens did last season, and that’s without any Pats running back sporting an above-average mark in either metric. Cam has carried the offense on his back through two weeks.

Brady looked a lot better in Week 2 but his overall performance hasn’t been much of an improvement over what we saw out of Jameis Winston last season. Eventually, he’ll stop throwing interceptions — he’s on pace to throw 24 — but the far bigger concern might be the lack of explosive plays and down-to-down success.