We’re officially at the point in the NFL season when we can start to be confident about which teams are good and which teams are not. And yet … I feel like I know less about this league than I did a month ago.
Take the Chiefs, for instance. They’re supposed to be a sure thing but even they don’t make any sense. They go from nearly losing to the Chargers to blowing out the Ravens to losing to the Raiders in a four-week span. Kansas City isn’t alone, either. The Ravens are 5-1 but something is just off with that offense. The Bucs are fresh off a dominant win over the Packers but that came on the heels of an ugly loss to the Bears. The Seahawks are undefeated but needed a close win over a bad Vikings team to maintain their perfect record. The Steelers look like the Chiefs’ biggest challengers in the AFC but we’re still not sure if Ben Roethlisberger’s arm will last the entire season.
This is not a normal season, and we probably won’t have a good grasp on the league until Thanksgiving. But if you think that uncertainty is going to stop me from firing off takes, you must not be familiar with the Monday Take Dump, where no take is too hot and all takes are subject to change under further review.
Here are my five spiciest takes after a long day of watching football…
The Super Bowl champion will come from this group of six: Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Seahawks, Packers and Buccaneers
It’s obvious why the teams I have included in that group are there — all of them have a great quarterback and/or a great defense — so instead of explaining myself further, I’ll cover why some teams were excluded, focusing on only those that currently have a winning record…
Bills: Defensive regression has hit the Bills hard this season, and while I do expect Sean McDermott to eventually figure things out, the numbers suggest that Josh Allen, who has carried this team to a 4-1 record, is due for some regression of his own. He’s been very good this season, but I don’t know if he, and that talented receiving corps, is ready to drag this year’s team to a Super Bowl.
Titans: My totally pessimistic take on this Titans offense, which has been fantastic all season, is that it’s going to dominate bad teams, but when it goes up against a good defense that is capable of taking away what it does best (the play-action pass), it won’t have a Plan B. We kind of saw that in last year’s playoffs. I’ll also add that this team is a few unlucky bounces away from being 1-4 and just nearly lost to a tremendously flawed Texans team.
Colts: The defense has been very good to start the season, but that zone-heavy approach is highly exploitable. They just don’t have the talent to match-up with a team like the Chiefs and will be far too reliant on Philip Rivers’ aging arm. The coaching staff has tried to lean on the run game a bit more, which might preserve Rivers’ arm, but it just hasn’t been efficient.
Browns: LOL. Even the most optimistic Browns fan wouldn’t fight this one.
Raiders: If the defense we saw in the upset over the Chiefs in Kansas City shows up every week, the Raiders might have a chance at making a playoff run. But, really, everything went right for Vegas in that game. The Chiefs offense couldn’t stop committing penalties; the defense couldn’t stop busting coverages. It was a nice win, but the Raiders still have a long way to go before we can consider them contenders.
Patriots: More on this team later in the Take Dump.
Rams: It’s been a wild ride for me and this team. In the offseason, I was ready to blow it up. Then the first few weeks happened, and I was calling them Super Bowl contenders. Well, after Sunday night’s loss to the 49ers, I want off the ride. I blame Jared Goff. Obviously, he was good enough to get this team to a Super Bowl in 2018, but the difference between that year and this one is that defenses seem to be more capable of getting Goff to play a game he’s not really capable of playing at a high level. In other words, it’s easier to get this Rams offense in obvious passing situations, which is when he turns into Jared Goof.
Saints: Drew Brees has been better over the last couple weeks but if the recent trend of his play declining at the end of the season continues in 2020, things are going to get real ugly. I would not be surprised if we’re doing the whole “This is the last team anyone wants to play in the postseason” routine with New Orleans, but do you really see Brees hanging with Mahomes or even Aaron Rodgers? I didn’t think so.
Bears: Some teams with a better point-differential than Chicago: The Dolphins, Cardinals, and 49ers. This season is going a lot like last season did. In 2019, the Bears got off to a 3-1 start thanks to a bit of luck in close games before regression finally hit and things went downhill in a hurry. The defense will keep Chicago competitive but that late-game luck will eventually turn.
Cardinals: They lost to the Lions. Enough said.
Baker Mayfield isn’t the one
I know, I know: Baker is still young. He’s had no coaching stability. The guy we saw in the second half of 2018 still has to be in there somewhere. Did I miss anything?
It’s easy to excuse Mayfield’s poor play, and some of those arguments are more than valid, but we’re almost at the point of no return with him and his development. Some may say it’s way too early to give up on the 2018 first-overall pick, but I’m not so sure that’s true. The front office has to decide this offseason whether to pick up his fifth-year option (for 2022) which would lock him in for a salary equal to the transition tag. That would pay Mayfield like a top-10 quarterback and, more importantly, delay a possible reboot at the position for another year.
If the Browns were making that decision today, you’d have to think they’d turn down that option. Mayfield has regressed since his rookie season, when it appeared he had figured out some of the issues that scared some scouts during the pre-draft process. Namely, his suspect pocket presence and less-than-ideal footwork. We saw those issues pop back up in 2019 and nothing has changed in 2020.
The hope was that Kevin Stefanski’s paint-by-numbers offense would help to negate those issues, and when the game-script has allowed the Browns to lean on play-action passes and the run game, it has. But when Cleveland has played good, aggressive defenses capable of putting Mayfield in unfavorable down-and-distances, forcing him to actually play quarterback, the results have been ugly.
That was certainly the case in Cleveland’s deflating 38-7 loss to the “rival” Steelers. To be fair, Mayfield was under a lot of pressure, but even when kept clean, the 25-year-old played horribly, earning a PFF grade of 41.3 on those 13 dropbacks. Mayfield’s first interception, an inexcusable mistake he has made far too often throughout his career, came on one of those plays.
Both of Mayfield’s interceptions came on non-play-action attempts. After the Pittsburgh game, his TD-INT ratio on straight dropbacks for the season is 6-5. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per attempt on those plays. Only Daniel Jones has been worse. When Mayfield’s hand hasn’t been held by the playcalling, he’s been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
There’s an impressive crop of quarterback prospects entering the league next year. The Browns had better be doing their research on those players.
The Patriots need to trade for a receiver and/or make this one change to the offense
Even after that ugly loss to the Broncos, I’m not ready to write off this Patriots team completely. This offense hadn’t really practiced together in two weeks, and it looked like it on Sunday. Cam Newton was particularly bad against Denver. He held the ball too long, and, for whatever reason — maybe rust — he just wasn’t pulling the trigger when receivers got open downfield.
Now, maybe that hesitation was based on an understandable lack of faith in the receiving corps. The Patriots just don’t have a receiver capable of consistently winning downfield without the aid of a play-action fake that clears out the middle of the field. Receivers capable of winning downfield aren’t just freely available, but based on what I’ve seen of A.J. Green’s tape this season, I’d put him on that list. And it seems like the Bengals would be willing to discuss a trade. I can’t imagine that move costing the Patriots more than a late Day 2 pick, so it’s worth exploring.
Even if it’s not a trade for Green, the Patriots have to make some changes if this team is going to have a chance at the playoffs. Defenses are going to get better at defending the run game, which has been wholly reliant on Newton’s mobility; and, outside of the Seattle game, the passing game hasn’t been able to exploit defenses keying in on the run. The Broncos hemmed up the run game and the Patriots did not have an answer on Sunday.
Talent is the big issue, but Josh McDaniels could do a better job of meshing the Pats’ option run game with the play-action pass. Going into Sunday, Cam Newton had attempted only 10 play-action passes from the gun compared to 22 from under center. Play-action is most effective when the fakes look a lot like a team’s typical run plays, and that cohesion just hasn’t been there for the Pats offense.
The Eagles need to blow things up
It’s hard to blame the Eagles for keeping the core of the Super Bowl-winning roster together. But now it’s time to admit that the magic of that 2017 season is never returning and the roster needs an overhaul.
Yes, the Eagles are banged up (again) and, even at 1-4-1, have a chance at making the playoffs, but look at this depth chart and count how many players Philadelphia fans should be excited about having on the roster going forward. Now look at the contracts of those players and let me know how many of them are providing real value to the team.
It’s not many!
There’s no perfect way to build a good NFL roster, but the best teams typically have a consistently productive quarterback and have surrounded him with good players on relatively cheap deals. The Eagles have neither at the moment.
Philadelphia’s cap situation may force Howie Roseman’s hand, anyway. The Eagles hadn’t planned on a global pandemic putting a freeze on the expected salary cap growth and may need to shed close to $60 million in order to get under the cap next offseason. Some cap-clearing moves are obvious: Cutting Alshon Jeffrey, letting Derek Barnett walk in free agency, etc., but Eagles fans may be saying goodbye to foundational players like Zach Ertz, Jason Kelce and Brandon Graham. This team is going to look a lot different next season either way, so the front office might as well lean into the rebuild and tear this thing down to the foundation.
Now this proposed rebuild would not include shipping off Carson Wentz just yet, but if this run of uneven play persists for another year that move has to be considered. Wentz’s deal keeps him around until at least 2022 and there’s a non-zero chance the Eagles hit the eject button as soon as that becomes an option.
The Jets should let Adam Gase coach the rest of the season
This is easy for me to say because I don’t have to watch this offense every week, but please be patient, Jets fans. Only 10 more games until that first-overall pick (and Trevor Lawrence) is locked down.
I mean, you’ve been a Jets fan all your life; you can handle a few more months of this, right?
But, seriously, a midseason coaching change doesn’t really benefit this team in any way. The season is already lost and moving on from Gase could spark a late-season surge that ends up dropping the Jets out of the top-five picks. That’s a worst-case scenario.
I know there’s still some hope that Sam Darnold could be the guy and the team doesn’t need Lawrence, but it’s going to be hard to get that Gase stink off him. Let some other team deal with that. Lawrence is as close to a can’t-miss prospect as you can get and landing him would give this team a chance to be good for the next two decades.
So here’s my suggestion: Instead of watching the Jets on Sundays, just watch a replay of Saturday’s Clemson’s game. It will be better for your mental health.