Bet against the Miami Dolphins at your own risk. That’s been one of the common themes of the Brian Flores era in Miami after the team’s abysmal first month together in September of 2019. Miami has a nifty little habit of outperforming the external expectations on a weekly basis — the team constantly thriving in the perceived slights from around the football world.
But specifically in the 2020 season? The Dolphins are not only thriving against the expectations, they’ve become the NFL’s most profitable bet on a weekly basis against the spread. John Ewing, a Data Analyst for BetMGM, shared this morning which NFL teams have had the most and least success against the spread this season and the Miami Dolphins are all alone at the top.
Most profitable teams in 2020:@MiamiDolphins 11-4 ATS@BuffaloBills 10-5 ATS@Ravens 9-6 ATS@Panthers 9-6 ATS@packers 9-6 ATS
Least profitable:@nyjets 6-9 ATS@Jaguars 6-9 ATS@HoustonTexans 5-10 ATS@dallascowboys 5-10 ATS@Eagles 5-10 ATS
— John Ewing (@johnewing) December 29, 2020
Interestingly enough, the Dolphins’ Week 17 opponent, the Buffalo Bills, lies as the next best team against the spread on the season, meaning something is going to have to give for one of these two teams (or at least it likely will, barring a push against the spread). Depending on where you look, the spread for Sunday’s game is floating somewhere between 5 and 2 points in favor of the Bills. And while the Bills have enjoyed success against Miami as of late (3-0 in their last three and 7-3 over Miami in their last 10), the teams have split the last 10 against the spread, 5-5.
Which means we’re probably in for a wild ride on Sunday as the Dolphins look to leave no doubt in their playoff candidacy. The Bills will have an intriguing decision to make regarding their personnel with the NFL’s revised one-team bye format for the postseason — meaning Buffalo may risk it all by playing all their starters just to avoid being on the same side of the bracket as the Kansas City Chiefs.
Such decisions will certainly impact the end result and could potentially help the Dolphins push their record against the spread to 12-4 if the Bills take a conservative approach.