The Green Bay Packers and Aaron Jones will have only a few more days to decide whether the 2020 Pro Bowler stays in Green Bay or plays for a new team in 2021. The team didn’t use the franchise or transition tag on Tuesday, opening the door for Jones to hit free agency.
In fact, it’s difficult to envision Jones not getting to the open market. The Packers had the chance to use the tag and get him back for around $8 million in 2021. The team passed. Now, Jones and agent Drew Rosenhaus have all the leverage. They won’t agree to a deal unless it has everything the player wants, and maybe more. That means top money per year, and more guaranteed money. If the Packers weren’t willing to use the tag, they probably won’t be prepared to give Jones everything required to keep him out of free agency.
It’s a complicated deal, for both player and team. Here’s a closer look at the many sides of the situation:
– Don’t pay a running back: The list of running backs that have lived up to a big contract is a stunningly short one. In fact, most of the big deals at the position over the last 10 years have been unmitigated disasters. Running backs have small windows of top production and often take a beating, increasing the frequency of career-killing or career-altering injuries, and it’s a position that is generally easy to replace with young, cheap talent from the draft. Don’t pay them. Ever.
– Go get paid: A fifth-round pick in 2017, Jones turned himself into a legitimate star over his first four NFL seasons. He’s a dynamic weapon and a Pro Bowl player. He also played on a cheap rookie deal, making pennies compared to most of his peers. Now is the time for him to maximize his value. Hometown discount? Forget it. At his position, Jones must cash in while he’s in demand. And he’ll be in demand in a few days. It’s hard to blame him for chasing the payday.
– Perfect fit: There’s also something to be said about a running back finding the ideal situation. Green Bay is Jones’ best spot. He has everything a running back would ever want: MVP quarterback, creative playcaller, perfect scheme for his skillset, chances to operate in the passing game, terrific offensive line, and depth around him, ensuring he’s not worked into the ground. Maybe Jones has a better chance of playing out the entirety of his next contract in Green Bay over somewhere else.
– A.J. Dillon: The Packers used a second-round pick on Dillon for exactly this scenario. Of course, teaming Jones and Dillon together would be great. But the Packers had a plan in case Jones priced himself out of Green Bay. Dillon and another savvy draft pick could also be very good in 2021.
– Impact: Sure, running backs are replaceable. And the Packers have a young, exciting running back waiting for a bigger role. But Jones produced over 3,000 total yards and scored 30 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Dillon could be great and still not approach those numbers. Jones and his slashing, dashing talents will be difficult to replace.
– No second contract for a young star: The Packers have built the franchise into a consistent contender by drafting, developing and retaining young players. Jones is the ultimate success story. The fifth-round pick becomes a star. Losing him after his rookie contract expires would sting the program.
– What’s best for the player: The tag would have been cruel to Jones. That’s not to say an $8 million payday is anything to sneeze at. But after developing into a Pro Bowler, Jones has a legitimate chance to make life-changing money as a true free agent. The tag would have robbed him of that opportunity and opened the door to his situation changing by this time next year. What if he blows his knee out in Week 1? The Packers did right for the player.
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