Warning: This post has some NSFW language in it.
Lamar Jackson had a bad 2021. The former NFL MVP struggled with injury (and a possible case of bubble guts) en route to a forgettable season.
He missed five games and had little backup from a depleted running back corps, leading to his worst passing numbers as a pro since being thrown into the starting lineup as a rookie in 2018.
This served as fuel for the “Jackson can’t do anything but run” crowd of detractors.
The former Heisman Trophy winner’s game has always faced unfair criticism related to his ability to make throws downfield, even as he led the league in passing touchdowns in his MVP 2019 campaign. And, thanks to a quote The Athletic published about Jackson in a story Monday, we know at least one NFL defensive coordinator is one of those critics:
“If he has to pass to win the game, they ain’t winning the game,” another defensive coordinator said. “He’s so unique as an athlete and he’s really a good football player, but I don’t (care) if he wins the league MVP 12 times, I don’t think he’ll ever be a 1 as a quarterback. He’ll be a 1 as a football player, but not as a quarterback. So many games come down to two-minute, and that is why they have a hard time advancing even when they are good on defense. Playoffs are tight. You have to be able to throw the ball, and he is just so inconsistent throwing the ball. It is hit or miss.”
(It appears that since publishing, The Athletic edited the language of the quote to censor an expletive.)
Beyond insulting, this is a straight-up lazy take. Jackson had an awful season as his interception rate rose, but he also had limited support from an understaffed receiving corps and a tailback room that fell apart before the season even began. It’s easy to look at his middling counting numbers from 2021 — starting with the 16-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio or 87.0 passer rating — and use that to confirm whatever bias you may have had before Baltimore’s backslide.
But to suggest Jackson is inconsistent throwing the ball, especially in the clutch, is wild. Fortunately, we have tools available that can not only isolate his play in these big moments but also prove he’s been better than several established quarterbacks in that stretch.
Let’s start with completion rate over expected (CPOE), a measurement of how many more plays a quarterback makes with his arm versus what he’d be expected to make, per advanced stats. Since 2019, in the fourth quarter or overtime of games that aren’t blowouts — for our purposes, when either team’s win probability is between 20 and 80 percent — Jackson’s CPOE of 3.1 percent (that’s a completion rate of 68.5 percent versus an expected rate of 65.4) is better than:
- Tom Brady: 2.8 percent
- Josh Allen: 2.5
- Patrick Mahomes: 1.3
- Russell Wilson: 0.8
If you take away last year’s lost season, that CPOE jumps to 6.4 percent — fifth-best in the NFL over that stretch. His 7.9 air yards per throw were more than any other quarterback in the top five but Deshaun Watson. Not only was he taking chances downfield late in tight games, but he converted them.
If advanced stats aren’t your thing — and, in fairness, Jackson’s expected points added over the past two seasons have been mostly pedestrian — you can even see Jackson’s strength in the traditional numbers that have been used to tee up his criticism. The Ringer‘s Rodger Sherman has done the math for us.
Warning: There is some NSFW language in this tweet.
Sub-5 minutes 4th quarter and trailing, last 3 seasons
Unstoppable Comeback God Patrick Mahomes: 39-62, 509 yards (62.9%, 8.2 YPA), 4 TDs, 1 INT, 110.2 QB rating
Can't Pass To Win The Game Lamar Jackson: 41-64, 574 yards (64.1%, 9.0 YPA), 5 TDs, 1 INT, 112.4 QB rating https://t.co/5uK1lkWZmo— Rodger Sherman (@rodger) July 25, 2022
Would you rather have Mahomes or Jackson at quarterback late in a playoff game?
That’s a fair question, and it’s totally reasonable to prefer the Chiefs’ MVP over the Ravens’ guy. But to offhandedly dismiss Jackson based on perceived holes in his game that don’t hold up to scrutiny is wild! It’s a continuation of the criticism that followed him into the league in 2018 and, in all likelihood, may never stop, even if he wins a Super Bowl.
We know Jackson is capable of spinning magic downfield. His IQR — Sports Information Solution’s proprietary quarterback metric — ranked fourth among all passers when it came to deep throws in 2019. We also know he’s been unreliable in the postseason, which is disappointing but came in seasons where he was 21, 22 and 23 years old. Writing him off when he’s still a baby relative to the rest of the league’s elite quarterbacks is unnecessary bravado from an unnamed DC and bulletin board fodder in Baltimore.
Jackson is probably in line for another tough year. His top wideout was traded and the depth chart behind Rashod Bateman is thin. He’s going to have to target his tight ends more than most NFL quarterbacks, and he’ll need help from a hopefully recovered JK Dobbins/Gus Edwards duo in the backfield. But even if he struggles he’s going to make the kinds of plays few other NFL veterans can make, because that’s who he is as a quarterback.
That’ll be mind-boggling runs, sure. But contrary to what our unnamed defensive coordinator suggests, it’ll be some clutch throws late in close games, too.
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