The Dallas Cowboys endured weather delays, a depleted roster, and survived playing one of the best defenses in football in order to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers and creep above .500 in Week 5. Their reward? a revenge-fueled Detroit Lions sporting one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, two rigid running backs, and a top 10 team rested and ready off their bye week.
Dallas sits behind the eight ball, thanks to the schedule and attrition. They’re playing a game of Uno against a one-card opponent with five cards and all four colors in their hand. They’re playing freeze tag with a nervous tick, Duck, Duck, Goose with their shoelaces tied together. Dallas is a home underdog for the second time in two AT&T games after ending last regular season with 16 straight home wins. But there is a strategy to pulling off an upset.
The Cowboys are going to need to play keep away.
Dallas will need to control this game on offense. Against the Steelers, they had three drives over four minutes long, including a 16-play, eight-minute drive in the fourth quarter.
With all the injuries to the defense, the Cowboys are worn down. Chauncey Golston played 90% of the defensive snaps, and Osa Odighizuwa played 72%; they will struggle if they are out on the field for another 40 to 60 snaps. The Cowboys must extend drives, run the ball well, convert third downs, and most importantly finish drives in the end zone.
Detroit hasn’t been a juggernaut on defense, ranking 15th in defensive DVOA. They’ve allowed 20 or more points in all but one game this year, and the Seattle Seahawks moved the ball all over them prior to their bye.
Geno Smith threw for almost 400 yards, DK Metcalf had seven receptions for over 100 yards, and Kenneth Walker III ran for 80 yards on 12 attempts, with three scores. Smith and Zach Charbonnet each averaged over 7.5 yards per carry themselves.
If Dallas can run the ball, limit possessions, and keep it a low-scoring contest, then their All-Pro quarterback might be able to pull off another upset victory. As good as the Cowboys’ offense can be, a shootout might be too much to ask of the defense this week.