The Miami Heat snapped a season-long four-game losing streak with Monday’s win over the Sacramento Kings. It was a necessary win to not only end their skid but also bring good vibes to a team in desperate need of them after the spat between star Jimmy Butler, Udonis Haslem and head coach Erik Spoelstra.
But the current top seed in the Eastern Conference can only feel so good about beating the team with the third-worst record in the West. The Heat have lost four straight games against teams with winning records, including two to fellow Eastern Conference contenders — the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets. Their last such win was nearly three weeks ago against the slumping Cleveland Cavaliers.
That means you can go one of two ways when picking Wednesday night’s game between the Heat and third-place Boston Celtics, who are favored at home by 5.5 points at Tipico Sportsbook: ride Miami’s recent trend of coming up small against contenders or predict a breakout.
I’m choosing the latter and taking the points.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Odds
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)
Moneyline: Celtics (-210), Heat (+170)
Point Total: 213.5
[tipico]
First of 3 on the road tonight, need #HEATNation with us down the stretch! pic.twitter.com/PEA9JQHo5R
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) March 30, 2022
The biggest reason I’m picking Miami is desperation. Despite the Heat’s standing as first in the East, they likely feel a need to win this game more than the Celtics who were winners of six straight before Monday’s loss to the Toronto Raptors. Miami’s hold on the top seed in the conference is anything but firm. Just 1 1/2 games separates the Heat and the fourth-place Philadelphia 76ers.
The Heat will also want to put together a good game against a team they’ve yet to beat season and may run into later in the playoffs. Miami is 0-2 against the Celtics, losing both games by double digits. And though Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry missed the second of those games, both starting lineups were in tact when the Celtics beat the Heat by 17 in November.
Boston’s lineup won’t be in tact for Wednesday’s game, however, with center Robert Williams III ruled out four-to-six weeks after undergoing surgery for a torn meniscus. The Celtics sat most of their starters on Monday, so Wednesday’s game against the Heat is the first chance they’ll have to figure out rotations and whatever adjustments are necessary without him.
— Jayson Tatum (@jaytatum0) March 30, 2022
All this leads me to believe the Heat at least cover the spread in a close game. And I’ll take it a step further and pick them to win at +165 odds. While the Kings are far from top competition, that game did allow Miami to get back in an offensive groove, which it’ll desperately need against Boston’s great defense. Miami shot 54% from the field Monday, including an incredible 47.5% (19-40) on 3-pointers.
Finally, I think the game goes over the 213.5 total. It’s a small number because both these teams defend at a high level, but both have been killing the over in recent games. They’ve combined for 11 overs in their last 12 games.