The future of offensive football

Passing is king, and defenses at all levels of football are trying to force teams to run. What does that mean for the future of offense?

Run the damn ball

(Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

That’s right, run the damn ball.

Having spent countless hours and over 4,000 words outlining how defenses are going to attack these two-high safety looks in the passing game, perhaps the answer has been staring us in the face the whole time. If defense are going to play the numbers, force teams to run the football and craft coverages behind them that are going to require the quarterback to flip his eyes full-field or hit on shot plays downfield, maybe offenses should not play along.

Maybe they should run the ball after all.

Again, the numbers tell us this is not the answer. This entire piece began with numbers outlining how for every single NFL team over the past two years, even the worst passing games are still more effective throwing rather than running. Furthermore, the league’s two-best rushing attacks — Baltimore and Tennessee — are the only two teams with a positive EPA/rush over that period. Every other team, including the past two Super Bowl champions, has a negative EPA/rush. Every. Single. One.

Perhaps this is lunacy, but there is something to consider. Think of how we began, with the idea that if you have two-deep safeties before the play as a defense, you have to do something to counter-act the fact that you are outmanned/outgapped up front against the run. Remember the Kyle Cogan “slinging the fits” discussion? To get the run fits in place from a two-high look the defense has to do something with the overhang defenders.

But what if you could still put the numbers in your favor as an offense?

In the AFC Wild-Card game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Buffalo Bills, the Bills had to try and find a way to be more efficient when they ran the football. During the regular season, Buffalo produced an EPA/rush of just -0.082. The Colts, known for playing with a lot of two-high looks, were more than content in trying to force Josh Allen to be a spectator.

What is one thing the Bills tried?

Not letting Allen be a spectator.

Allen was Buffalo’s leading rusher on the day, carrying the ball 11 times for 54 yards and a touchdown. Take this play, from Buffalo’s drive before halftime:

The Colts have their two safeties deep and show a light box. So what does Brian Daboll dial up? A quarterback draw. The play goes for 16 yards and a fresh set of downs, and would end up being the biggest running play of the game for the Bills offense.

Buffalo would not only get the win, but they would finish the day with an EPA/rush of -0.047. Still…not great! But better than they had been doing during the regular season.

Of course, as an NFL offense you do not want your very expensive quarterback to take on the wear-and-tear of a running back. But if defenses are going to lighten the box, keep two safeties deep, and dare you to run, then the answer — or at least an occasional answer — might be to play along. How? By running the football with your quarterback and really playing the numbers advantage. If defenses are doing to play with five (or even fewer, as we highlighted with some of the Iowa State designs from earlier) in the box, then turn +1 into +2 as an offense and design running plays with your quarterback as a complement to what you are doing offensively.

If nothing else, as an offense you might take some of the ownership back and instead of the defense forcing what you do as an offense, maybe you start to dictate the terms of the play back to them. To do that, however, you might need a quarterback with some mobility. That brings us to the debate over whether such a trait is a prerequisite in today’s NFL, and in incoming rookies. That…that is a debate that we can leave for another time, but you probably know where I stand on that issue.

Who knows? Maybe, just maybe, we will get to a place where running backs matter again. Because given the copycat nature of the NFL, teams will start copying what the Staleys and the Fangios of the world are doing, and everyone will be showing two-high pre-snap and hoping that offenses hand the ball off. That might even lead to more teams going lighter and faster on defense. And as we know, football is a cyclical game, and every action leads to an equal reaction. Coastal Carolina’s 21 personnel option game might be featured on Sundays before you know it…